Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria using multicriteria decision modelling
The results of an analysis of the spatial distribution of disease risk and its visual presentation through risk maps allow for the design of targeted and therefore more cost-effective animal disease surveillance strategies. There are various methods by which disease risk maps can be generated. One of these is multicriteria decision modelling (MCDM) which is a knowledge-driven approach to the production of risk maps. As with all modelling work, it is important for the user of these outputs to be aware of the assumptions made in relation to the models and any potential sources of selection and information bias when interpreting the results of such analyses. The objective of this study was to describe the spatial variation in the likelihood of (i) introduction and (ii) spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N1 on a continental scale in Africa. This report describes the methods used to produce likelihood maps illustrating the likelihood of introduction and subsequent spread of HPAIV H5N1 at both the continental and country level (Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Ghana; targeted countries of the DfID project), and highlights limitations associated with the maps.
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English |
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IFPRI, ILRI and RVC
2009-04
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| Subjects: | highly pathogenic avian influenza, poultry, |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/5412 |
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dig-cgspace-10568-54122023-04-05T18:15:39Z Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria using multicriteria decision modelling Stevens, Kim B. Costard, Solenne Métras, Raphaëlle Pfeiffer, Dirk U. highly pathogenic avian influenza poultry The results of an analysis of the spatial distribution of disease risk and its visual presentation through risk maps allow for the design of targeted and therefore more cost-effective animal disease surveillance strategies. There are various methods by which disease risk maps can be generated. One of these is multicriteria decision modelling (MCDM) which is a knowledge-driven approach to the production of risk maps. As with all modelling work, it is important for the user of these outputs to be aware of the assumptions made in relation to the models and any potential sources of selection and information bias when interpreting the results of such analyses. The objective of this study was to describe the spatial variation in the likelihood of (i) introduction and (ii) spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N1 on a continental scale in Africa. This report describes the methods used to produce likelihood maps illustrating the likelihood of introduction and subsequent spread of HPAIV H5N1 at both the continental and country level (Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Ghana; targeted countries of the DfID project), and highlights limitations associated with the maps. 2009-04 2011-08-22T18:45:09Z 2011-08-22T18:45:09Z Working Paper Stevens, K.B., Costard, S., Métras, R. and Pfeiffer, D.U. 2009. Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria using multicriteria decision modelling. HPAI Africa/Indonesia Team Working Paper. Washington, DC: IFPRI. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/5412 en HPAI Africa/Indonesia Team Working Paper Other Open Access application/pdf IFPRI, ILRI and RVC |
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highly pathogenic avian influenza poultry highly pathogenic avian influenza poultry |
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highly pathogenic avian influenza poultry highly pathogenic avian influenza poultry Stevens, Kim B. Costard, Solenne Métras, Raphaëlle Pfeiffer, Dirk U. Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria using multicriteria decision modelling |
| description |
The results of an analysis of the spatial distribution of disease risk and its visual presentation through risk maps allow for the design of targeted and therefore more cost-effective animal disease surveillance strategies. There are various methods by which disease risk maps can be generated. One of these is multicriteria decision modelling (MCDM) which is a knowledge-driven approach to the production of risk maps. As with all modelling work, it is important for the user of these outputs to be aware of the assumptions made in relation to the models and any potential sources of selection and information bias when interpreting the results of such analyses. The objective of this study was to describe the spatial variation in the likelihood of (i) introduction and (ii) spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) subtype H5N1 on a continental scale in Africa. This report describes the methods used to produce likelihood maps illustrating the likelihood of introduction and subsequent spread of HPAIV H5N1 at both the continental and country level (Kenya, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Ghana; targeted countries of the DfID project), and highlights limitations associated with the maps. |
| format |
Working Paper |
| topic_facet |
highly pathogenic avian influenza poultry |
| author |
Stevens, Kim B. Costard, Solenne Métras, Raphaëlle Pfeiffer, Dirk U. |
| author_facet |
Stevens, Kim B. Costard, Solenne Métras, Raphaëlle Pfeiffer, Dirk U. |
| author_sort |
Stevens, Kim B. |
| title |
Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria using multicriteria decision modelling |
| title_short |
Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria using multicriteria decision modelling |
| title_full |
Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria using multicriteria decision modelling |
| title_fullStr |
Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria using multicriteria decision modelling |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus H5N1 in Africa, Ghana, Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria using multicriteria decision modelling |
| title_sort |
mapping the likelihood of introduction and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus h5n1 in africa, ghana, ethiopia, kenya and nigeria using multicriteria decision modelling |
| publisher |
IFPRI, ILRI and RVC |
| publishDate |
2009-04 |
| url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/5412 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
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