Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia
This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow using SWAT CUP. The Mann–Kendall trend test (MK) was used to assess climate trends. Meteorological drought (SPEI) and hydrological drought (SDI) were also investigated. Based on the ensemble mean of five global climate models (GCMs), projected increases in mean annual maximum temperature over the period 2015–2100 (compared with a 1983–2014 baseline) range from 1.16 to 1.73 °C, while increases in minimum temperature range between 0.79 and 2.53 °C. Increases in mean annual precipitation range from 1.8% at Addis Ababa to 45.5% over the Hombole area. High streamflow (Q5) declines at all stations except Ginchi. Low flows (Q90) also decline with Q90 equaling 0 m3 s−1 (i.e., 100% reduction) at some gauging stations (Akaki and Hombole) for individual GCMs. The SPEI confirmed a significant drought trend in the past, while the frequency and severity of drought will increase in the future. The basin experienced conditions that varied from modest dry periods to a very severe hydrological drought between 1986 and 2005. The projected SDI ranges from modestly dry to modestly wet conditions. Climate change in the basin would enhance seasonal variations in hydrological conditions. Both precipitation and streamflow will decline in the wet seasons and increase in the dry seasons. These changes are likely to have an impact on agricultural activities and other human demands for water resources throughout the basin and will require the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures.
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2021-12-23
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Subjects: | climate change, hydrology, agriculture, food security, soil, water, |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/117368 https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010003 |
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dig-cgspace-10568-1173682023-12-08T19:36:04Z Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia Emiru, Nega C. Recha, John W.M. Thompson, Julian R. Belay, Abrham Aynekulu, Ermias Manyevere, Alen Demissie, Teferi D. Osano, Philip M. Hussein, Jabir Molla, Mikias B. Mengistu, Girma M. Solomon, Dawit climate change hydrology agriculture food security soil water This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow using SWAT CUP. The Mann–Kendall trend test (MK) was used to assess climate trends. Meteorological drought (SPEI) and hydrological drought (SDI) were also investigated. Based on the ensemble mean of five global climate models (GCMs), projected increases in mean annual maximum temperature over the period 2015–2100 (compared with a 1983–2014 baseline) range from 1.16 to 1.73 °C, while increases in minimum temperature range between 0.79 and 2.53 °C. Increases in mean annual precipitation range from 1.8% at Addis Ababa to 45.5% over the Hombole area. High streamflow (Q5) declines at all stations except Ginchi. Low flows (Q90) also decline with Q90 equaling 0 m3 s−1 (i.e., 100% reduction) at some gauging stations (Akaki and Hombole) for individual GCMs. The SPEI confirmed a significant drought trend in the past, while the frequency and severity of drought will increase in the future. The basin experienced conditions that varied from modest dry periods to a very severe hydrological drought between 1986 and 2005. The projected SDI ranges from modestly dry to modestly wet conditions. Climate change in the basin would enhance seasonal variations in hydrological conditions. Both precipitation and streamflow will decline in the wet seasons and increase in the dry seasons. These changes are likely to have an impact on agricultural activities and other human demands for water resources throughout the basin and will require the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures. 2021-12-23 2022-01-06T13:24:21Z 2022-01-06T13:24:21Z Journal Article Emiru NC, Recha JW, Thompson JR, Belay A, Aynekulu E, Manyevere A, Demissie TD, Osano PM, Hussein J, Molla MB, Mengistu GM, Solomon D. 2021. Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Hydrology 9(1):3. 2306-5338 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/117368 https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010003 en CC-BY-4.0 Open Access 3 MDPI Hydrology |
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climate change hydrology agriculture food security soil water climate change hydrology agriculture food security soil water Emiru, Nega C. Recha, John W.M. Thompson, Julian R. Belay, Abrham Aynekulu, Ermias Manyevere, Alen Demissie, Teferi D. Osano, Philip M. Hussein, Jabir Molla, Mikias B. Mengistu, Girma M. Solomon, Dawit Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
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This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow using SWAT CUP. The Mann–Kendall trend test (MK) was used to assess climate trends. Meteorological drought (SPEI) and hydrological drought (SDI) were also investigated. Based on the ensemble mean of five global climate models (GCMs), projected increases in mean annual maximum temperature over the period 2015–2100 (compared with a 1983–2014 baseline) range from 1.16 to 1.73 °C, while increases in minimum temperature range between 0.79 and 2.53 °C. Increases in mean annual precipitation range from 1.8% at Addis Ababa to 45.5% over the Hombole area. High streamflow (Q5) declines at all stations except Ginchi. Low flows (Q90) also decline with Q90 equaling 0 m3 s−1 (i.e., 100% reduction) at some gauging stations (Akaki and Hombole) for individual GCMs. The SPEI confirmed a significant drought trend in the past, while the frequency and severity of drought will increase in the future. The basin experienced conditions that varied from modest dry periods to a very severe hydrological drought between 1986 and 2005. The projected SDI ranges from modestly dry to modestly wet conditions. Climate change in the basin would enhance seasonal variations in hydrological conditions. Both precipitation and streamflow will decline in the wet seasons and increase in the dry seasons. These changes are likely to have an impact on agricultural activities and other human demands for water resources throughout the basin and will require the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures. |
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Journal Article |
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climate change hydrology agriculture food security soil water |
author |
Emiru, Nega C. Recha, John W.M. Thompson, Julian R. Belay, Abrham Aynekulu, Ermias Manyevere, Alen Demissie, Teferi D. Osano, Philip M. Hussein, Jabir Molla, Mikias B. Mengistu, Girma M. Solomon, Dawit |
author_facet |
Emiru, Nega C. Recha, John W.M. Thompson, Julian R. Belay, Abrham Aynekulu, Ermias Manyevere, Alen Demissie, Teferi D. Osano, Philip M. Hussein, Jabir Molla, Mikias B. Mengistu, Girma M. Solomon, Dawit |
author_sort |
Emiru, Nega C. |
title |
Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
title_short |
Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
title_full |
Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
title_fullStr |
Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Upper Awash River Basin, Ethiopia |
title_sort |
impact of climate change on the hydrology of the upper awash river basin, ethiopia |
publisher |
MDPI |
publishDate |
2021-12-23 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/117368 https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010003 |
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