Spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors for dengue at the province level in Vietnam, 2013–2015: Clustering analysis and regression model
Dengue is a serious infectious disease threat in Vietnam, but its spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors are not currently well understood at the province level across the country and on a multiannual scale. We explore spatial trends, clusters and outliers in dengue case counts at the province level from 2011–2015 and use this to extract spatiotemporal variables for regression analysis of the association between dengue case counts and selected spatiotemporal and socioeconomic variables from 2013–2015. Dengue in Vietnam follows anticipated spatial trends, with a potential two-year cycle of high-high clusters in some southern provinces. Small but significant associations are observed between dengue case counts and mobility, population density, a province’s dengue rates the previous year, and average dengue rates two years previous in first and second order contiguous neighbours. Significant associations were not found between dengue case counts and housing pressure, access to electricity, clinician density, province-adjusted poverty rate, percentage of children below one vaccinated, or percentage of population in urban settings. These findings challenge assumptions about socioeconomic and spatiotemporal risk factors for dengue, and support national prevention targeting in Vietnam at the province level. They may also be of wider relevance for the study of other arboviruses, including Japanese encephalitis, Zika, and Chikungunya.
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2020-05-19
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dig-cgspace-10568-1084092023-12-08T19:36:04Z Spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors for dengue at the province level in Vietnam, 2013–2015: Clustering analysis and regression model Ashmore, P. Lindahl, Johanna F. Colón-González, F.J. Vu Sinh Nam Dang Quang Tan Medley, G.F. risk analysis vectors diseases epidemiology Dengue is a serious infectious disease threat in Vietnam, but its spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors are not currently well understood at the province level across the country and on a multiannual scale. We explore spatial trends, clusters and outliers in dengue case counts at the province level from 2011–2015 and use this to extract spatiotemporal variables for regression analysis of the association between dengue case counts and selected spatiotemporal and socioeconomic variables from 2013–2015. Dengue in Vietnam follows anticipated spatial trends, with a potential two-year cycle of high-high clusters in some southern provinces. Small but significant associations are observed between dengue case counts and mobility, population density, a province’s dengue rates the previous year, and average dengue rates two years previous in first and second order contiguous neighbours. Significant associations were not found between dengue case counts and housing pressure, access to electricity, clinician density, province-adjusted poverty rate, percentage of children below one vaccinated, or percentage of population in urban settings. These findings challenge assumptions about socioeconomic and spatiotemporal risk factors for dengue, and support national prevention targeting in Vietnam at the province level. They may also be of wider relevance for the study of other arboviruses, including Japanese encephalitis, Zika, and Chikungunya. 2020-05-19 2020-06-08T17:12:02Z 2020-06-08T17:12:02Z Journal Article Ashmore, P., Lindahl, J.F., Colón-González, F.J., Vu Sinh Nam, Dang Quang Tan and Medley, G.F. 2020. Spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors for dengue at the province level in Vietnam, 2013–2015: Clustering analysis and regression model. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease 5(2): 81. 2414-6366 https://hdl.handle.net/10568/108409 https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed5020081 en CC-BY-4.0 Open Access MDPI Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease |
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risk analysis vectors diseases epidemiology risk analysis vectors diseases epidemiology Ashmore, P. Lindahl, Johanna F. Colón-González, F.J. Vu Sinh Nam Dang Quang Tan Medley, G.F. Spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors for dengue at the province level in Vietnam, 2013–2015: Clustering analysis and regression model |
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Dengue is a serious infectious disease threat in Vietnam, but its spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors are not currently well understood at the province level across the country and on a multiannual scale. We explore spatial trends, clusters and outliers in dengue case counts at the province level from 2011–2015 and use this to extract spatiotemporal variables for regression analysis of the association between dengue case counts and selected spatiotemporal and socioeconomic variables from 2013–2015. Dengue in Vietnam follows anticipated spatial trends, with a potential two-year cycle of high-high clusters in some southern provinces. Small but significant associations are observed between dengue case counts and mobility, population density, a province’s dengue rates the previous year, and average dengue rates two years previous in first and second order contiguous neighbours. Significant associations were not found between dengue case counts and housing pressure, access to electricity, clinician density, province-adjusted poverty rate, percentage of children below one vaccinated, or percentage of population in urban settings. These findings challenge assumptions about socioeconomic and spatiotemporal risk factors for dengue, and support national prevention targeting in Vietnam at the province level. They may also be of wider relevance for the study of other arboviruses, including Japanese encephalitis, Zika, and Chikungunya. |
format |
Journal Article |
topic_facet |
risk analysis vectors diseases epidemiology |
author |
Ashmore, P. Lindahl, Johanna F. Colón-González, F.J. Vu Sinh Nam Dang Quang Tan Medley, G.F. |
author_facet |
Ashmore, P. Lindahl, Johanna F. Colón-González, F.J. Vu Sinh Nam Dang Quang Tan Medley, G.F. |
author_sort |
Ashmore, P. |
title |
Spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors for dengue at the province level in Vietnam, 2013–2015: Clustering analysis and regression model |
title_short |
Spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors for dengue at the province level in Vietnam, 2013–2015: Clustering analysis and regression model |
title_full |
Spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors for dengue at the province level in Vietnam, 2013–2015: Clustering analysis and regression model |
title_fullStr |
Spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors for dengue at the province level in Vietnam, 2013–2015: Clustering analysis and regression model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors for dengue at the province level in Vietnam, 2013–2015: Clustering analysis and regression model |
title_sort |
spatiotemporal and socioeconomic risk factors for dengue at the province level in vietnam, 2013–2015: clustering analysis and regression model |
publisher |
MDPI |
publishDate |
2020-05-19 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10568/108409 https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed5020081 |
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