Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): No. 54: August 2015

The August 2015 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the simple average growth expectations for 2015 for the eight countries covered by REVELA have decreased by 0. 1% from 2. 5% to 2. 4%. Moreover, the GDP weighted average growth expectations have fallen by 0. 2%, from 0. 5% to 0. 3%. Meanwhile, surveys indicate that inflation expectations for 2015 have increased by 0. 2% from 4. 9% to 5. 1% considering the simple average, and by 0. 1% from 6. 3% to 6. 4% on a GDP weighted average basis. At the individual country level, growth expectations for 2015 have fallen in Brazil (by 0. 3%), Mexico (by 0. 3%), Peru (by 0. 2%), Chile (by 0. 1%) and Uruguay (by 0. 1%); while they have remained constant in Paraguay (at 4. 0%) and Colombia (at 3. 5%), and have increased in Guatemala (by 0. 1%). Inflation expectations for 2015 have increased in Uruguay (by 0. 5%), Chile (by 0. 4%), Colombia (by 0. 3%), Peru (by 0. 2%) and Brazil (by 0. 1%). They have remained stable in Paraguay (at 4. 5%) and Mexico (at 2. 8%) and have decreased in Guatemala (by 0. 1%). Expected growth for 2015 now ranges between -2. 0% in Brazil and 4. 0% in Paraguay, while expected inflation ranges between 2. 8% in Mexico and 9. 3% in Brazil.