The Fear Factor: A Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation on the Economic Risk of an Ebola Scare in the Caribbean
This brief presents simulations of an Ebola scare in the Caribbean, including three highly tourism-dependent economies, The Bahamas, Barbados, and Jamaica. On the basis of the experience of Mexico in 2009 with swine flu, we simulate a short but sharp drop in tourist arrivals resulting from tourists' worries about Ebola. The Caribbean is special in that tourism contributes directly and indirectly up to half of its GDP. The simulations indicate that the volatility of tourism combined with that dependence creates significant vulnerability for the region. Under the worst-case scenario, a noticeable impact could be expected even in countries with a smaller dependence on tourism. In addition, declines could also be expected for employment and revenues. However, 'pandemic scares' can be short-lived and the simulations indicate that the Caribbean would be able to absorb a short tourism drop. The intensity and duration of the outfall in tourism would depend on the real and perceived preparedness of the affected countries, highlighting that countries in the Caribbean need to not only avoid or minimize any Ebola cases but also ensure that tourists perceive these countries as safe places.
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Format: | Policy Briefs biblioteca |
Language: | English |
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Inter-American Development Bank
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Subjects: | Tourism, Disease, L83 - Sports • Gambling • Restaurants • Recreation • Tourism, O19 - International Linkages to Development • Role of International Organizations, O54 - Latin America • Caribbean, |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0008451 https://publications.iadb.org/en/fear-factor-back-envelope-calculation-economic-risk-ebola-scare-caribbean |
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dig-bid-node-121582024-05-30T20:03:20ZThe Fear Factor: A Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation on the Economic Risk of an Ebola Scare in the Caribbean 2014-12-10T00:00:00+0000 http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0008451 https://publications.iadb.org/en/fear-factor-back-envelope-calculation-economic-risk-ebola-scare-caribbean Inter-American Development Bank Tourism Disease L83 - Sports • Gambling • Restaurants • Recreation • Tourism O19 - International Linkages to Development • Role of International Organizations O54 - Latin America • Caribbean This brief presents simulations of an Ebola scare in the Caribbean, including three highly tourism-dependent economies, The Bahamas, Barbados, and Jamaica. On the basis of the experience of Mexico in 2009 with swine flu, we simulate a short but sharp drop in tourist arrivals resulting from tourists' worries about Ebola. The Caribbean is special in that tourism contributes directly and indirectly up to half of its GDP. The simulations indicate that the volatility of tourism combined with that dependence creates significant vulnerability for the region. Under the worst-case scenario, a noticeable impact could be expected even in countries with a smaller dependence on tourism. In addition, declines could also be expected for employment and revenues. However, 'pandemic scares' can be short-lived and the simulations indicate that the Caribbean would be able to absorb a short tourism drop. The intensity and duration of the outfall in tourism would depend on the real and perceived preparedness of the affected countries, highlighting that countries in the Caribbean need to not only avoid or minimize any Ebola cases but also ensure that tourists perceive these countries as safe places. Inter-American Development Bank Juan Pedro Schmid Xavier Malcolm Policy Briefs application/pdf IDB Publications Mexico Suriname Trinidad and Tobago Guyana Jamaica Barbados Bahamas The Caribbean en |
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Tourism Disease L83 - Sports • Gambling • Restaurants • Recreation • Tourism O19 - International Linkages to Development • Role of International Organizations O54 - Latin America • Caribbean Tourism Disease L83 - Sports • Gambling • Restaurants • Recreation • Tourism O19 - International Linkages to Development • Role of International Organizations O54 - Latin America • Caribbean |
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Tourism Disease L83 - Sports • Gambling • Restaurants • Recreation • Tourism O19 - International Linkages to Development • Role of International Organizations O54 - Latin America • Caribbean Tourism Disease L83 - Sports • Gambling • Restaurants • Recreation • Tourism O19 - International Linkages to Development • Role of International Organizations O54 - Latin America • Caribbean Inter-American Development Bank The Fear Factor: A Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation on the Economic Risk of an Ebola Scare in the Caribbean |
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This brief presents simulations of an Ebola scare in the Caribbean, including three highly tourism-dependent economies, The Bahamas, Barbados, and Jamaica. On the basis of the experience of Mexico in 2009 with swine flu, we simulate a short but sharp drop in tourist arrivals resulting from tourists' worries about Ebola. The Caribbean is special in that tourism contributes directly and indirectly up to half of its GDP. The simulations indicate that the volatility of tourism combined with that dependence creates significant vulnerability for the region. Under the worst-case scenario, a noticeable impact could be expected even in countries with a smaller dependence on tourism. In addition, declines could also be expected for employment and revenues. However, 'pandemic scares' can be short-lived and the simulations indicate that the Caribbean would be able to absorb a short tourism drop. The intensity and duration of the outfall in tourism would depend on the real and perceived preparedness of the affected countries, highlighting that countries in the Caribbean need to not only avoid or minimize any Ebola cases but also ensure that tourists perceive these countries as safe places. |
author2 |
Juan Pedro Schmid |
author_facet |
Juan Pedro Schmid Inter-American Development Bank |
format |
Policy Briefs |
topic_facet |
Tourism Disease L83 - Sports • Gambling • Restaurants • Recreation • Tourism O19 - International Linkages to Development • Role of International Organizations O54 - Latin America • Caribbean |
author |
Inter-American Development Bank |
author_sort |
Inter-American Development Bank |
title |
The Fear Factor: A Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation on the Economic Risk of an Ebola Scare in the Caribbean |
title_short |
The Fear Factor: A Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation on the Economic Risk of an Ebola Scare in the Caribbean |
title_full |
The Fear Factor: A Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation on the Economic Risk of an Ebola Scare in the Caribbean |
title_fullStr |
The Fear Factor: A Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation on the Economic Risk of an Ebola Scare in the Caribbean |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Fear Factor: A Back-Of-The-Envelope Calculation on the Economic Risk of an Ebola Scare in the Caribbean |
title_sort |
fear factor: a back-of-the-envelope calculation on the economic risk of an ebola scare in the caribbean |
publisher |
Inter-American Development Bank |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0008451 https://publications.iadb.org/en/fear-factor-back-envelope-calculation-economic-risk-ebola-scare-caribbean |
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1806237080087429120 |