Revelation of Expectations in Latin America (REVELA): No. 44 : September, 2014

The August 2014 surveys of expectations conducted by Central Banks with inflation targeting regimes indicate that the weighted average growth expectations for 2014 for the eight countries covered remained under 2% and further declined (from just under 2. 0% last month to just under 1. 8%). The simple average growth expectation also fell from 3. 4% to 3. 2% while inflation expectations for 2014 have remained stable at 4. 8%. Comparing the August and July surveys, expected 2014 growth remained stable only two of the countries studied (Colombia and Uruguay). Expected growth fell in Brazil (0. 2%), Chile (0. 4%), Guatemala (0. 1%), Mexico (0. 1%), Paraguay (0. 1%) and Peru (0. 3%). Expected growth now ranges between 4. 8% (Paraguay) to 0. 7% (Brazil). The GDP weighted average inflation expectation for the region for 2014 remained stable at 5. 2%. Inflation expectations rose in Colombia (0. 1%) and fell in Brazil (0. 2%) and Guatemala (0. 1%).