Forecasting Inflation Risks in Latin America: A Technical Note
There are many sources of inflation forecasts for Latin America. The International Monetary Fund, Latin Focus, the Economist Intelligence Unit and other consulting companies all offer inflation forecasts. However, these sources do not provide any probability measures regarding the risk of inflation. In some cases, Central Banks offer forecast and probability analyses but typically their models are not fully transparent. This technical note attempts to develop a relatively homogeneous set of methodologies and employs them to estimate inflation forecasts, probability distributions for those forecasts and hence probability measures of high inflation. The methodologies are based on both parametric and non-parametric estimation. Results are given for five countries in the region that have inflation targeting regimes.
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Inter-American Development Bank
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| Subjects: | Economy, C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods, E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications, Inflation forecast, Inflation risk,, |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0009040 https://publications.iadb.org/en/forecasting-inflation-risks-latin-america-technical-note |
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dig-bid-node-117422024-05-30T20:08:13ZForecasting Inflation Risks in Latin America: A Technical Note 2012-06-13T00:00:00+0000 http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0009040 https://publications.iadb.org/en/forecasting-inflation-risks-latin-america-technical-note Inter-American Development Bank Economy C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Inflation forecast, Inflation risk, There are many sources of inflation forecasts for Latin America. The International Monetary Fund, Latin Focus, the Economist Intelligence Unit and other consulting companies all offer inflation forecasts. However, these sources do not provide any probability measures regarding the risk of inflation. In some cases, Central Banks offer forecast and probability analyses but typically their models are not fully transparent. This technical note attempts to develop a relatively homogeneous set of methodologies and employs them to estimate inflation forecasts, probability distributions for those forecasts and hence probability measures of high inflation. The methodologies are based on both parametric and non-parametric estimation. Results are given for five countries in the region that have inflation targeting regimes. Inter-American Development Bank Rodrigo Mariscal Andrew Powell Technical Notes application/pdf IDB Publications The Caribbean South America Central America en |
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Economy C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Inflation forecast, Inflation risk, Economy C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Inflation forecast, Inflation risk, |
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Economy C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Inflation forecast, Inflation risk, Economy C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Inflation forecast, Inflation risk, Inter-American Development Bank Forecasting Inflation Risks in Latin America: A Technical Note |
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There are many sources of inflation forecasts for Latin America. The International Monetary Fund, Latin Focus, the Economist Intelligence Unit and other consulting companies all offer inflation forecasts. However, these sources do not provide any probability measures regarding the risk of inflation. In some cases, Central Banks offer forecast and probability analyses but typically their models are not fully transparent. This technical note attempts to develop a relatively homogeneous set of methodologies and employs them to estimate inflation forecasts, probability distributions for those forecasts and hence probability measures of high inflation. The methodologies are based on both parametric and non-parametric estimation. Results are given for five countries in the region that have inflation targeting regimes. |
| author2 |
Rodrigo Mariscal |
| author_facet |
Rodrigo Mariscal Inter-American Development Bank |
| format |
Technical Notes |
| topic_facet |
Economy C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods • Simulation Methods E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications Inflation forecast, Inflation risk, |
| author |
Inter-American Development Bank |
| author_sort |
Inter-American Development Bank |
| title |
Forecasting Inflation Risks in Latin America: A Technical Note |
| title_short |
Forecasting Inflation Risks in Latin America: A Technical Note |
| title_full |
Forecasting Inflation Risks in Latin America: A Technical Note |
| title_fullStr |
Forecasting Inflation Risks in Latin America: A Technical Note |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting Inflation Risks in Latin America: A Technical Note |
| title_sort |
forecasting inflation risks in latin america: a technical note |
| publisher |
Inter-American Development Bank |
| url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0009040 https://publications.iadb.org/en/forecasting-inflation-risks-latin-america-technical-note |
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AT interamericandevelopmentbank forecastinginflationrisksinlatinamericaatechnicalnote |
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1806237010720980992 |