Uncertainty in the Economic Appraisal of Water Quality Improvement Investments: The Case for Project Risk Analysis
This technical paper argues that Monte Carlo risk analysis offers a more comprehensive and informative way to look at project risk ex-ante than the traditional (and often arbitrary), one-influence-at-atime sensitivity analysis approach customarily used in IDB analyses of economic feasibility. The case for probabilistic risk analysis is made using data from a project for cleaning up the Tietê river in São Paulo, Brazil. A number of ways to handle uncertainty about benefits are proposed, and their implications for the project acceptance decision and the consequent degree of presumed project risk are explained and illustrated.
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| Format: | Technical Notes biblioteca |
| Language: | English |
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Inter-American Development Bank
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| Subjects: | Water Management, Water Supply and Sanitation, tiete river;Water Resources;Environment;Environmental Law and Economics;brazil;risk analysis;Urban Environment, |
| Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0008825 https://publications.iadb.org/en/uncertainty-economic-appraisal-water-quality-improvement-investments-case-project-risk-analysis |
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dig-bid-node-114382024-05-30T20:08:13ZUncertainty in the Economic Appraisal of Water Quality Improvement Investments: The Case for Project Risk Analysis 2000-07-01T00:00:00+0000 http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0008825 https://publications.iadb.org/en/uncertainty-economic-appraisal-water-quality-improvement-investments-case-project-risk-analysis Inter-American Development Bank Water Management Water Supply and Sanitation tiete river;Water Resources;Environment;Environmental Law and Economics;brazil;risk analysis;Urban Environment This technical paper argues that Monte Carlo risk analysis offers a more comprehensive and informative way to look at project risk ex-ante than the traditional (and often arbitrary), one-influence-at-atime sensitivity analysis approach customarily used in IDB analyses of economic feasibility. The case for probabilistic risk analysis is made using data from a project for cleaning up the Tietê river in São Paulo, Brazil. A number of ways to handle uncertainty about benefits are proposed, and their implications for the project acceptance decision and the consequent degree of presumed project risk are explained and illustrated. Inter-American Development Bank William J. Vaughan Arthur H. Darling Diego J. Rodríguez Technical Notes application/pdf IDB Publications Brazil en |
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biblioteca |
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Biblioteca Felipe Herrera del BID |
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English |
| topic |
Water Management Water Supply and Sanitation tiete river;Water Resources;Environment;Environmental Law and Economics;brazil;risk analysis;Urban Environment Water Management Water Supply and Sanitation tiete river;Water Resources;Environment;Environmental Law and Economics;brazil;risk analysis;Urban Environment |
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Water Management Water Supply and Sanitation tiete river;Water Resources;Environment;Environmental Law and Economics;brazil;risk analysis;Urban Environment Water Management Water Supply and Sanitation tiete river;Water Resources;Environment;Environmental Law and Economics;brazil;risk analysis;Urban Environment Inter-American Development Bank Uncertainty in the Economic Appraisal of Water Quality Improvement Investments: The Case for Project Risk Analysis |
| description |
This technical paper argues that Monte Carlo risk analysis offers a more comprehensive and informative way to look at project risk ex-ante than the traditional (and often arbitrary), one-influence-at-atime sensitivity analysis approach customarily used in IDB analyses of economic feasibility. The case for probabilistic risk analysis is made using data from a project for cleaning up the Tietê river in São Paulo, Brazil. A number of ways to handle uncertainty about benefits are proposed, and their implications for the project acceptance decision and the consequent degree of presumed project risk are explained and illustrated. |
| author2 |
William J. Vaughan |
| author_facet |
William J. Vaughan Inter-American Development Bank |
| format |
Technical Notes |
| topic_facet |
Water Management Water Supply and Sanitation tiete river;Water Resources;Environment;Environmental Law and Economics;brazil;risk analysis;Urban Environment |
| author |
Inter-American Development Bank |
| author_sort |
Inter-American Development Bank |
| title |
Uncertainty in the Economic Appraisal of Water Quality Improvement Investments: The Case for Project Risk Analysis |
| title_short |
Uncertainty in the Economic Appraisal of Water Quality Improvement Investments: The Case for Project Risk Analysis |
| title_full |
Uncertainty in the Economic Appraisal of Water Quality Improvement Investments: The Case for Project Risk Analysis |
| title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in the Economic Appraisal of Water Quality Improvement Investments: The Case for Project Risk Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in the Economic Appraisal of Water Quality Improvement Investments: The Case for Project Risk Analysis |
| title_sort |
uncertainty in the economic appraisal of water quality improvement investments: the case for project risk analysis |
| publisher |
Inter-American Development Bank |
| url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0008825 https://publications.iadb.org/en/uncertainty-economic-appraisal-water-quality-improvement-investments-case-project-risk-analysis |
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AT interamericandevelopmentbank uncertaintyintheeconomicappraisalofwaterqualityimprovementinvestmentsthecaseforprojectriskanalysis |
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1806236957000335360 |