Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors
This paper analyzes the relevance of external factors in average quarterly GDP growth for 1990-2006 in the seven largest Latin American countries (LAC7). Modeling the relationship between LAC7 GDP and several external factors, it is found that those factors account for a significant share of variance in LAC7 GDP growth, and that external shocks produce significant responses. Likewise, a significant share of recent LAC7 growth performance can be explained by an external factor tailwind. Also evaluated is the impact of deterioration in external financial conditions. Finally, the relevance of these findings for policy evaluation is emphasized. Growth performance, the strength or weakness of macroeconomic fundamentals and the impact of domestic macro and micro policies on growth can only be properly appraised by first filtering out the effects of external factors.
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Format: | Working Papers biblioteca |
Language: | English |
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Inter-American Development Bank
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Subjects: | Economy, F31 - Foreign Exchange, F32 - Current Account Adjustment • Short-Term Capital Movements, F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems, F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics, WP-631, |
Online Access: | http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0010885 https://publications.iadb.org/en/booms-and-busts-latin-america-role-external-factors |
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dig-bid-node-100552024-05-30T20:25:17ZBooms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors 2008-02-01T00:00:00+0000 http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0010885 https://publications.iadb.org/en/booms-and-busts-latin-america-role-external-factors Inter-American Development Bank Economy F31 - Foreign Exchange F32 - Current Account Adjustment • Short-Term Capital Movements F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics WP-631 This paper analyzes the relevance of external factors in average quarterly GDP growth for 1990-2006 in the seven largest Latin American countries (LAC7). Modeling the relationship between LAC7 GDP and several external factors, it is found that those factors account for a significant share of variance in LAC7 GDP growth, and that external shocks produce significant responses. Likewise, a significant share of recent LAC7 growth performance can be explained by an external factor tailwind. Also evaluated is the impact of deterioration in external financial conditions. Finally, the relevance of these findings for policy evaluation is emphasized. Growth performance, the strength or weakness of macroeconomic fundamentals and the impact of domestic macro and micro policies on growth can only be properly appraised by first filtering out the effects of external factors. Inter-American Development Bank Alejandro Izquierdo Randall Romero Ernesto Talvi Working Papers application/pdf IDB Publications The Caribbean Central America South America en |
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America del Norte |
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Biblioteca Felipe Herrera del BID |
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Economy F31 - Foreign Exchange F32 - Current Account Adjustment • Short-Term Capital Movements F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics WP-631 Economy F31 - Foreign Exchange F32 - Current Account Adjustment • Short-Term Capital Movements F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics WP-631 |
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Economy F31 - Foreign Exchange F32 - Current Account Adjustment • Short-Term Capital Movements F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics WP-631 Economy F31 - Foreign Exchange F32 - Current Account Adjustment • Short-Term Capital Movements F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics WP-631 Inter-American Development Bank Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors |
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This paper analyzes the relevance of external factors in average quarterly GDP growth for 1990-2006 in the seven largest Latin American countries (LAC7). Modeling the relationship between LAC7 GDP and several external factors, it is found that those factors account for a significant share of variance in LAC7 GDP growth, and that external shocks produce significant responses. Likewise, a significant share of recent LAC7 growth performance can be explained by an external factor tailwind. Also evaluated is the impact of deterioration in external financial conditions. Finally, the relevance of these findings for policy evaluation is emphasized. Growth performance, the strength or weakness of macroeconomic fundamentals and the impact of domestic macro and micro policies on growth can only be properly appraised by first filtering out the effects of external factors. |
author2 |
Alejandro Izquierdo |
author_facet |
Alejandro Izquierdo Inter-American Development Bank |
format |
Working Papers |
topic_facet |
Economy F31 - Foreign Exchange F32 - Current Account Adjustment • Short-Term Capital Movements F34 - International Lending and Debt Problems F41 - Open Economy Macroeconomics WP-631 |
author |
Inter-American Development Bank |
author_sort |
Inter-American Development Bank |
title |
Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors |
title_short |
Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors |
title_full |
Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors |
title_fullStr |
Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors |
title_full_unstemmed |
Booms and Busts in Latin America: The Role of External Factors |
title_sort |
booms and busts in latin america: the role of external factors |
publisher |
Inter-American Development Bank |
url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0010885 https://publications.iadb.org/en/booms-and-busts-latin-america-role-external-factors |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT interamericandevelopmentbank boomsandbustsinlatinamericatheroleofexternalfactors |
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1809106661321736192 |