[OBRA COMPLETA] Introducción al análisis Bayesiano

An introduction to the Bayesian Analysis is presented and conceptual aspects highlighted. Initially, the probability concept is analyzed from its objective perspective such as frequency, and from its subjective perspective such as degree of belief. It is discussed how, within the context of Bayesian statistics, probability as degree of belief allows to give sense to the probability of a hypothesis and, therefore, enables to resolve problems of scientific interest that could not be otherwise addressed. The likelihood concept is discussed and the Bayes formula, which integrates a priori information and knowledge with information provided by current data demonstrated. Basic concepts of the Decision Theory within the Bayesian perspective are introduced. The SIR (Sampling Importance Resampling) algorithm is presented as a tool to carry out a Bayesian Analysis with numerical techniques. Finally, an application example in fisheries considering Shaefer biomass dynamics model is shown.