Risk and Returns of Diversified Cropping Systems Under Nonnormal, Cross-, and Autocorrelated Commodity Price Structures

This study analyzes the risks of diversified tropical cropping systems that combine cocoa, plantain, and tree-crop components in different proportions versus traditional monocultures. A technique for modeling the expected values, variances, and covariances of correlated time-series variables that are autocorrelated and nonnormal (right or left skewed and kurtotic) is applied to simulate commodity prices. The importance of using simulated cumulative density functions (cdf's) which reflect the most important characteristics of the stochastic behavior of prices for analyzing risk and returns of diversified agricultural systems is demonstrated. The analysis priovides evidence in favor of diversified cocoa-plantain-Cordia agroforestry system technologies versus the traditional monocultures. This study analyzes the risks of diversified tropical cropping systems that combine cocoa, plantain, and tree-crop components in different proportions versus traditional monocultures. A technique for modeling the expected values, variances, and covariances of correlated time-series variables that are autocorrelated and nonnormal (right or left skewed and kurtotic) is applied to simulate commodity prices. The importance of using simulated cumulative density functions (cdf's) which reflect the most important characteristics of the stochastic behavior of prices for analyzing risk and returns of diversified agricultural systems is demonstrated. The analysis priovides evidence in favor of diversified cocoa-plantain-Cordia agroforestry system technologies versus the traditional monocultures.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	109102 Ramírez, O.A., Somarriba, Eduardo CATIE - Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza, Turrialba, Costa Rica autores/as
Format:	Texto biblioteca
Language:	eng
Published:	Wisconsin (EUA): Western Agricultural Economics Association, 2000
Subjects:	ANALISIS DE RIESGOS, SISTEMAS DE CULTIVO, SIMULACION, THEOBROMA CACAO, MUSA (PLATANOS), AGROFORESTERIA, DISEÑO EXPERIMENTAL,
Online Access:	https://jareonline.org/articles/risk-and-returns-of-diversified-cropping-systems-under-nonnormal-cross-and-autocorrelated-commodity-price-structures/
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