Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity

Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity

Spatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5–12 yr of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on five continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk followingexperimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Last, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the longterm stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone.

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Main Authors: Wilfahrt, Peter A., Asmus, Ashley l., Seabloom, Eric W., Henning, Jeremiah A., Adler, Peter B., Arnillas, Carlos A., Bakker, Jonathan D., Tognetti, Pedro Maximiliano
Format: Texto biblioteca
Language:eng
Subjects:CORE - TRANSIENT, EXTINCTION RISK, GRASSLANDS, HERBIVORES, NUTNET, NUTRIENTS, RARITY, ,
Online Access:http://ceiba.agro.uba.ar/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=54999
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spelling KOHA-OAI-AGRO:549992023-11-21T09:58:39Zhttp://ceiba.agro.uba.ar/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=54999http://ceiba.agro.uba.ar/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=http://ceiba.agro.uba.ar/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=http://ceiba.agro.uba.ar/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=AAGTemporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarityWilfahrt, Peter A.Asmus, Ashley l.Seabloom, Eric W.Henning, Jeremiah A.Adler, Peter B.Arnillas, Carlos A.Bakker, Jonathan D.Tognetti, Pedro Maximilianotextengapplication/pdfapplication/pdfSpatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5–12 yr of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on five continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk followingexperimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Last, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the longterm stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone.Spatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5–12 yr of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on five continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk followingexperimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Last, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the longterm stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone.CORE - TRANSIENTEXTINCTION RISKGRASSLANDSHERBIVORESNUTNETNUTRIENTSRARITYEcology
institution UBA FA
collection Koha
country Argentina
countrycode AR
component Bibliográfico
access En linea
En linea
databasecode cat-ceiba
tag biblioteca
region America del Sur
libraryname Biblioteca Central FAUBA
language eng
topic CORE - TRANSIENT
EXTINCTION RISK
GRASSLANDS
HERBIVORES
NUTNET
NUTRIENTS
RARITY

CORE - TRANSIENT
EXTINCTION RISK
GRASSLANDS
HERBIVORES
NUTNET
NUTRIENTS
RARITY
spellingShingle CORE - TRANSIENT
EXTINCTION RISK
GRASSLANDS
HERBIVORES
NUTNET
NUTRIENTS
RARITY

CORE - TRANSIENT
EXTINCTION RISK
GRASSLANDS
HERBIVORES
NUTNET
NUTRIENTS
RARITY
Wilfahrt, Peter A.
Asmus, Ashley l.
Seabloom, Eric W.
Henning, Jeremiah A.
Adler, Peter B.
Arnillas, Carlos A.
Bakker, Jonathan D.
Tognetti, Pedro Maximiliano
Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity
description Spatial rarity is often used to predict extinction risk, but rarity can also occur temporally. Perhaps more relevant in the context of global change is whether a species is core to a community (persistent) or transient (intermittently present), with transient species often susceptible to human activities that reduce niche space. Using 5–12 yr of data on 1,447 plant species from 49 grasslands on five continents, we show that local abundance and species persistence under ambient conditions are both effective predictors of local extinction risk followingexperimental exclusion of grazers or addition of nutrients; persistence was a more powerful predictor than local abundance. While perturbations increased the risk of exclusion for low persistence and abundance species, transient but abundant species were also highly likely to be excluded from a perturbed plot relative to ambient conditions. Moreover, low persistence and low abundance species that were not excluded from perturbed plots tended to have a modest increase in abundance following perturbance. Last, even core species with high abundances had large decreases in persistence and increased losses in perturbed plots, threatening the longterm stability of these grasslands. Our results demonstrate that expanding the concept of rarity to include temporal dynamics, in addition to local abundance, more effectively predicts extinction risk in response to environmental change than either rarity axis predicts alone.
format Texto
topic_facet
CORE - TRANSIENT
EXTINCTION RISK
GRASSLANDS
HERBIVORES
NUTNET
NUTRIENTS
RARITY
author Wilfahrt, Peter A.
Asmus, Ashley l.
Seabloom, Eric W.
Henning, Jeremiah A.
Adler, Peter B.
Arnillas, Carlos A.
Bakker, Jonathan D.
Tognetti, Pedro Maximiliano
author_facet Wilfahrt, Peter A.
Asmus, Ashley l.
Seabloom, Eric W.
Henning, Jeremiah A.
Adler, Peter B.
Arnillas, Carlos A.
Bakker, Jonathan D.
Tognetti, Pedro Maximiliano
author_sort Wilfahrt, Peter A.
title Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity
title_short Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity
title_full Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity
title_fullStr Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity
title_full_unstemmed Temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity
title_sort temporal rarity is a better predictor of local extinction risk than spatial rarity
url http://ceiba.agro.uba.ar/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=54999
http://ceiba.agro.uba.ar/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=
http://ceiba.agro.uba.ar/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=
http://ceiba.agro.uba.ar/cgi-bin/koha/opac-detail.pl?biblionumber=
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