Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects : Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam

The world is faced with considerable risk and uncertainty about climate change. Particular attention has been paid increasingly to hydropower generation in recent years because it is renewable energy. However, hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries to changes in global and regional climate. This paper aims to examine the possibility of applying a simple vector autoregressive model to forecast future hydrological series and evaluate the resulting impact on hydropower projects. Three projects are considered - in India, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. The results are still tentative in terms of both methodology and implications; but the analysis shows that the calibrated dynamic forecasts of hydrological series are much different from the conventional reference points in the 90 percent dependable year. The paper also finds that hydrological discharges tend to increase with rainfall and decrease with temperature. The rainy season would likely have higher water levels, but in the lean season water resources would become even more limited. The amount of energy generated would be affected to a certain extent, but the project viability may not change so much. Comparing the three cases, it is suggested that having larger installed capacity and some storage capacity might be useful to accommodate future hydrological series and seasonality. A broader assessment will be called for at the project preparation stage.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	Iimi, Atsushi
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2007-09
Subjects:	APPROACH, ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION, ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, AVAILABILITY, CARBON, CARBON DIOXIDE, CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS, CARBON EMISSIONS, CARBON MARKET, CHRONIC DROUGHTS, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE FORECASTS, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE RESEARCH, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE VARIABLES, DAM, DAMS, DEMAND FOR ENERGY, DOWNPOURS, DRY SEASON, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, ELASTICITY, ELECTRICITY, ELECTRICITY GENERATION, ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION, EMISSIONS, ENERGY STRATEGY, ENERGY SUPPLY, EVAPORATION, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, FLOODS, FLOW OF WATER, FOSSIL, FOSSIL FUEL, GENERATION CAPACITY, GLACIERS, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL WARMING, HEAD, HEAT, HEAT WAVES, HIGHER ENERGY PRICES, HYDRO ENERGY, HYDRO POWER, HYDRO POWER PROJECT, HYDRO STATIONS, HYDROLOGICAL DATA, HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING, HYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION, HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, HYDROLOGICAL MODELS, HYDROLOGICAL RESOURCES, HYDROLOGY, HYDROPOWER, HYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT, HYDROPOWER GENERATION, HYDROPOWER PLANT, HYDROPOWER PLANTS, HYDROPOWER PROJECT, HYDROPOWER PROJECTS, HYDROPOWER STATION, HYDROPOWER STATIONS, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, IPCC, LAND USE, LOAD FACTOR, METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS, PEAK LOAD, PLANT OPERATION, POTENTIAL IMPACTS, POWER PLANTS, PRECIPITATION, PRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITY, RAIN, RAINFALL, RAINY SEASON, RENEWABLE ENERGY, RESERVOIR, RESERVOIRS, RIVER, RIVER FLOW, RIVER FLOWS, RIVERS, RUNOFF, SEDIMENT, SOIL, TEMPERATURE, TURBINE, WATER CYCLE, WATER FLOW, WATER FLOWS, WATER LEVEL, WATER LEVELS, WATER USE, WEATHER,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/09/8267877/estimating-global-climate-change-impacts-hydropower-projects-applications-india-sri-lanka-vietnam-estimating-global-climate-change-impacts-hydropower-projects-applications-india-sri-lanka-vietnam https://hdl.handle.net/10986/7332
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