Atmospheric Stabilization of CO2 Emissions : Near-term Reductions and Intensity-based Targets

This study analyzes CO2 emissions reduction targets for various countries and geopolitical regions by the year 2030 in order to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at the level of 450 ppm (550 ppm including non CO2 greenhouse gases). It also determines CO2 intensity cuts that would be needed in those countries and regions if the emission reductions were achieved through intensity-based targets while assuming no effect on forecasted economic growth. Considering that the stabilization of CO2 concentrations at 450 ppm requires the global trend of CO2 emissions to reverse before 2030, this study develops two scenarios: reversing the global CO2 trend in (i) 2020 and (ii) 2025. The study shows that global CO2 emissions would be 42 percent above the 1990 level in 2030 if the increasing trend of global CO2 emissions is reversed by 2020. If reversing the trend is delayed by 5 years, the 2030 global CO2 emissions would be 52 percent higher than the 1990 level. The study also finds that to achieve these targets while maintaining assumed economic growth, the global average CO2 intensity would require a 68 percent drop from the 1990 level or a 60 percent drop from the 2004 level by 2030.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	Timilsina, Govinda R.
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2007-09
Subjects:	ABSOLUTE EMISSION REDUCTION, AIR EMISSIONS, ANTHROPOGENIC INTERFERENCE, ATMOSPHERE, ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS, CEMENT, CENTRAL ASIAN, CLEAN AIR, CLEAN ENERGY, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICIES, CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY, CLIMATE POLICY, CLIMATE SYSTEM, CO2, CO2 EMISSIONS, COAL, EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT, EMISSION, EMISSION INTENSITIES, EMISSION INTENSITY, EMISSION LEVEL, EMISSION LEVELS, EMISSION PATHS, EMISSION REDUCTION, EMISSION REDUCTION TARGET, EMISSION REDUCTIONS, EMISSION TARGETS, EMISSIONS FROM ENERGY, EMISSIONS REDUCTION, EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGETS, EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS, ENERGY ECONOMICS, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, ENERGY INTENSITY, ENERGY INTENSIVE, ENERGY POLICY, ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY, FORESTRY, FOSSIL, FOSSIL FUELS, FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE, FUEL, FUEL SUBSTITUTION, GAS DATA, GAS FLARING, GDP, GHGS, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL EMISSION, GLOBAL EMISSIONS, GLOBAL WARMING, GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, GREENHOUSE GASES, HEAVY RELIANCE, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, IPCC, KYOTO PROTOCOL, LAND USE, NATURAL GAS, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEGOTIATIONS, OIL, POWER, SINK, SOUTH AMERICA, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, WORLD ENERGY, WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/09/8290686/atmospheric-stabilization-co2-emissions-near-term-reductions-intensity-based-targets https://hdl.handle.net/10986/7300
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