Droughts and Welfare in Afghanistan
This paper studies the effect of the 2018 drought on household consumption and poverty in Afghanistan, a semi-arid and conflict-affected country. The paper combines geolocated household data with remote-sensing weather data on precipitation, vegetation, and temperature. The findings show that drought-like conditions decreased monthly per capita consumption expenditures and hence increased poverty, with a highly nonlinear relationship between consumption and weather shocks. When forced to cut back, households reduced nonfood consumption to maintain their food consumption; only under severe stress did they reduce food consumption. Households that owned agricultural land were more resilient to the 2018 drought. Based on the historical distribution of weather shocks, estimates of vulnerability to poverty suggest that 62.5 percent of people have a one in four probability of falling into poverty due to weather shocks. Given that climate change will exacerbate the frequency and severity of future droughts, these findings highlight the importance of investments in resilience and shock-responsive social protection to supplement urgent humanitarian assistance.
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
| Language: | English English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2023-01
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| Subjects: | DROUGHT, POVERTY, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, NATURAL DISASTER, CLIMATE CHANGE, SOCIAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE, FOOD INSECURITY, FOOD CONSUMPTION, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099419201092321423/IDU08edcbfb706a2304b08084cd09848b36aa106 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38500 |
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| Summary: | This paper studies the effect of the
2018 drought on household consumption and poverty in
Afghanistan, a semi-arid and conflict-affected country. The
paper combines geolocated household data with remote-sensing
weather data on precipitation, vegetation, and temperature.
The findings show that drought-like conditions decreased
monthly per capita consumption expenditures and hence
increased poverty, with a highly nonlinear relationship
between consumption and weather shocks. When forced to cut
back, households reduced nonfood consumption to maintain
their food consumption; only under severe stress did they
reduce food consumption. Households that owned agricultural
land were more resilient to the 2018 drought. Based on the
historical distribution of weather shocks, estimates of
vulnerability to poverty suggest that 62.5 percent of people
have a one in four probability of falling into poverty due
to weather shocks. Given that climate change will exacerbate
the frequency and severity of future droughts, these
findings highlight the importance of investments in
resilience and shock-responsive social protection to
supplement urgent humanitarian assistance. |
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