Why Do Some Oil-Rich Countries Perform Better Than Others?
Progress in child mortality reduction and education attainment varies widely among oil-rich countries. This paper investigates the causes of this variation using an empirical model that departs from the available literature in allowing for explicit measurement of the impact of initial levels of child mortality and education attainment. The results show that the following four variables are statistically significant and robust across various specifications: public spending on health and education, economic growth rates, caloric sufficiency, and initial levels of child mortality and education attainment. Further analysis was conducted to determine the economic significance of these factors by examining the contribution of each to the fitted growth rates (as a deviation from the sample mean) of child mortality and secondary school enrollment for 14 oil-rich developing countries. The analysis reveals some interesting patterns. First, initial conditions dominate the results for education attainment: the initial level of secondary school enrollment in 1980 is the dominant factor in explaining subsequent improvements in 10 of the 14 oil-rich developing countries for which calculations could be performed. Second, policy factors worked in different ways in different countries. A high degree of caloric sufficiency enabled countries in the Middle East and North Africa to reduce child mortality faster, while low levels of caloric sufficiency prevented African oil-rich countries, such as Angola and the Republic of Congo, from making progress. Third, levels of public spending were not economically critical for gains in school enrollment, although they were important in a few country cases for improvements in child mortality rates.
Main Authors: | , |
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Format: | Working Paper biblioteca |
Language: | English en_US |
Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2017-05
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Subjects: | CHILD MORTALITY, SCHOOL ENROLLMENT, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, EDUCATION SPENDING, OIL-RICH COUNTRIES, EDUCATION ATTAINMENT, SECONDARY EDUCATION, NUTRITION, |
Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/306711495024778264/Why-do-some-oil-rich-countries-perform-better-than-others https://hdl.handle.net/10986/26758 |
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Summary: | Progress in child mortality reduction
and education attainment varies widely among oil-rich
countries. This paper investigates the causes of this
variation using an empirical model that departs from the
available literature in allowing for explicit measurement of
the impact of initial levels of child mortality and
education attainment. The results show that the following
four variables are statistically significant and robust
across various specifications: public spending on health and
education, economic growth rates, caloric sufficiency, and
initial levels of child mortality and education attainment.
Further analysis was conducted to determine the economic
significance of these factors by examining the contribution
of each to the fitted growth rates (as a deviation from the
sample mean) of child mortality and secondary school
enrollment for 14 oil-rich developing countries. The
analysis reveals some interesting patterns. First, initial
conditions dominate the results for education attainment:
the initial level of secondary school enrollment in 1980 is
the dominant factor in explaining subsequent improvements in
10 of the 14 oil-rich developing countries for which
calculations could be performed. Second, policy factors
worked in different ways in different countries. A high
degree of caloric sufficiency enabled countries in the
Middle East and North Africa to reduce child mortality
faster, while low levels of caloric sufficiency prevented
African oil-rich countries, such as Angola and the Republic
of Congo, from making progress. Third, levels of public
spending were not economically critical for gains in school
enrollment, although they were important in a few country
cases for improvements in child mortality rates. |
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