Uzbekistan Economic Report, April 2013
This regular economic report records the economic activities of Uzbekistan for the year 2013-2014. Uzbekistan’s outlook remains largely dependent on commodity prices. The chief external factors affecting economic performance of Uzbekistan are favorable global commodity price trends for gold, gas, cotton, and copper. Although remittance inflows may suffer as the outlook weakens for Russia, government increases in wages and social payments will help to sustain private consumption. Thus, growth in Uzbekistan is not expected to slow down considerably, as surplus current account, high fiscal savings, external reserves, ongoing investment program and wage increase and remittance inflow in 2013–14 would mitigate the impacts of a continued global slowdown. However, the poor business environment will continue to deter most Western investors, and the authorities likely to continue impeding private-sector activity by retaining currency controls and high tariffs and excise taxes on imports. Inflation is expected to remain at around 7 percent in 2013–15. Global food prices are forecast to gradually decline, and more modest growth in net foreign assets and monetary indicators would offset higher government spending and limit inflationary pressure. Although the short-term growth outlook remains favorable, downside risks are high due to a still weak global situation. The first risk is external and stems from a possible slowdown in economic activity in Russia (and a consequent reduction in remittance flows to Uzbekistan) and likely lower prices for some of Uzbekistan’s traditional commodity exports. The second risk is internal and comes from inappropriate integration of generally sound macroeconomic policies with weak structural policies in the country that negatively affect business incentives and hamper improvements in productivity and appropriate job creation making long term growth unsustainable.
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| Format: | Report biblioteca |
| Language: | English en_US |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2013-04
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| Subjects: | ECONOMIC GROWTH, SOCIETY, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, ANALYSIS, FINANCE, POLICY, economic outlook, trade, debt, labor market, poverty, fiscal policy, monetary policy, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/245641486554815984/Uzbekistan-Economic-development-and-reforms-achievements-and-challenges https://hdl.handle.net/10986/26060 |
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| Summary: | This regular economic report records the
economic activities of Uzbekistan for the year 2013-2014.
Uzbekistan’s outlook remains largely dependent on commodity
prices. The chief external factors affecting economic
performance of Uzbekistan are favorable global commodity
price trends for gold, gas, cotton, and copper. Although
remittance inflows may suffer as the outlook weakens for
Russia, government increases in wages and social payments
will help to sustain private consumption. Thus, growth in
Uzbekistan is not expected to slow down considerably, as
surplus current account, high fiscal savings, external
reserves, ongoing investment program and wage increase and
remittance inflow in 2013–14 would mitigate the impacts of a
continued global slowdown. However, the poor business
environment will continue to deter most Western investors,
and the authorities likely to continue impeding
private-sector activity by retaining currency controls and
high tariffs and excise taxes on imports. Inflation is
expected to remain at around 7 percent in 2013–15. Global
food prices are forecast to gradually decline, and more
modest growth in net foreign assets and monetary indicators
would offset higher government spending and limit
inflationary pressure. Although the short-term growth
outlook remains favorable, downside risks are high due to a
still weak global situation. The first risk is external and
stems from a possible slowdown in economic activity in
Russia (and a consequent reduction in remittance flows to
Uzbekistan) and likely lower prices for some of Uzbekistan’s
traditional commodity exports. The second risk is internal
and comes from inappropriate integration of generally sound
macroeconomic policies with weak structural policies in the
country that negatively affect business incentives and
hamper improvements in productivity and appropriate job
creation making long term growth unsustainable. |
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