Romania Toward a Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Economy
This report is about agriculture sector of Romania which is endowed with high quality natural resources and tops the European Union (EU) ranking by the share of the agriculture sector in the economy. However, Romanian agriculture has low productivity, and rural areas are disproportionally poor. An important factor in low productivity is the large share of small agricultural holdings. The sector needs to consider adaptation to a changing and less favorable climate going forward, as well as mitigate Gree House Gas (GHG) emissions. The impact of green adaptation policies and investments on sectoral outcomes in agriculture and related costs were assessed through joint modeling of water and agriculture. The projected decrease in water availability due to rising temperatures will push up the demand for water for irrigation, thus increasing the already existing demand-supply gap. Water sector modeling analyzed the impact of climate change on yields of nine crops over twelve basins in the baseline scenario and found that rainfed yields mostly decrease under all climate scenarios, with a varying severity of impact among types of crops and increasing impact over time, while the irrigated crops’ yields improve. Irrigation was found to be most significant adaptation measure providing the largest gains in yields. Two mitigation measures, both supported by the EU and the National Rural Development Program (NRDP) are considered in the agriculture mitigation analysis using the marginal abatement cost curve (MACC): minimum tillage and manure management. The most effective adaptation measures for Romanian agriculture are rehabilitated and modernized irrigation to restore irrigated production to currently rainfed areas and optimization of agronomic inputs accompanied by high-quality extension services. Improvements in good farming practices, like manure management and minimizing erosion through afforestation, can also reduce vulnerabilities. Financing needs for the two recommended mitigation measures–no tillage agriculture and manure management--are low and are highly beneficial from the point of view of sector efficiency. Finally, strengthening policy and institutional capacity is vital to support the recommended interventions
| Summary: | This report is about agriculture sector
of Romania which is endowed with high quality natural
resources and tops the European Union (EU) ranking by the
share of the agriculture sector in the economy. However,
Romanian agriculture has low productivity, and rural areas
are disproportionally poor. An important factor in low
productivity is the large share of small agricultural
holdings. The sector needs to consider adaptation to a
changing and less favorable climate going forward, as well
as mitigate Gree House Gas (GHG) emissions. The impact of
green adaptation policies and investments on sectoral
outcomes in agriculture and related costs were assessed
through joint modeling of water and agriculture. The
projected decrease in water availability due to rising
temperatures will push up the demand for water for
irrigation, thus increasing the already existing
demand-supply gap. Water sector modeling analyzed the impact
of climate change on yields of nine crops over twelve basins
in the baseline scenario and found that rainfed yields
mostly decrease under all climate scenarios, with a varying
severity of impact among types of crops and increasing
impact over time, while the irrigated crops’ yields improve.
Irrigation was found to be most significant adaptation
measure providing the largest gains in yields. Two
mitigation measures, both supported by the EU and the
National Rural Development Program (NRDP) are considered in
the agriculture mitigation analysis using the marginal
abatement cost curve (MACC): minimum tillage and manure
management. The most effective adaptation measures for
Romanian agriculture are rehabilitated and modernized
irrigation to restore irrigated production to currently
rainfed areas and optimization of agronomic inputs
accompanied by high-quality extension services. Improvements
in good farming practices, like manure management and
minimizing erosion through afforestation, can also reduce
vulnerabilities. Financing needs for the two recommended
mitigation measures–no tillage agriculture and manure
management--are low and are highly beneficial from the point
of view of sector efficiency. Finally, strengthening policy
and institutional capacity is vital to support the
recommended interventions |
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