Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Tanzania

The consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture, both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are considered to be the most vulnerable to climate change. This paper estimates the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in the country. The results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, recursive dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. The authors find that, relative to a no-climate-change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the principal channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favorable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. Noteworthy differences in impacts across households are also present both by region and by income category.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Arndt, Channing, Farmer, William, Strzepek, Kenneth, Thurlow, James
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2012-09
Subjects:	ABSORPTION, ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS, AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, AGRICULTURAL GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL INCOMES, AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURAL SECTORS, AGRICULTURAL YIELDS, AGRICULTURE, AGROCLIMATOLOGY, AIR, ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, ATMOSPHERE, CARBON, CARBON EMISSIONS, CARBON ENRICHMENT, CASSAVA, CEREALS, CHEMICALS, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE DAMAGES, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE CONDITIONS, CLIMATE EFFECTS, CLIMATE OUTCOMES, CLIMATE PROJECTIONS, CLIMATE SCENARIOS, CLIMATE SEQUENCE, CLIMATE SYSTEMS, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE VARIATION, CLIMATE-CHANGE, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CLIMATIC REGIONS, CLIMATIC ZONES, CLIMATOLOGY, CO, CO2, CONSEQUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMPTION BASKET, CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, CROP PROCESSING, CROP PRODUCTION, CROP YIELD, CROP YIELDS, DAILY CLIMATE DATA, DAMAGES, DATES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DISCOUNT RATE, DOMESTIC PRODUCTION, DYNAMIC COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC COSTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMIC MODEL, ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMY-WIDE IMPACTS, EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ELECTRICITY, EMISSION, EMISSION SCENARIOS, EMISSIONS SCENARIO, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, EXCHANGE RATE, FARM ACTIVITIES, FARM HOUSEHOLDS, FARMER, FARMERS, FERTILIZATION, FOOD AVAILABILITY, FOOD COMMODITIES, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, FOOD CROP, FOOD CROPS, FOOD IMPORTS, FOOD INSECURITY, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PROCESSING, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SUPPLIES, FOOD SUPPLY, FORESTRY, FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGES, GCM, GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GLOBAL CLIMATE, GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION, GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GASES, GOLD, GREENHOUSE, GROUNDNUTS, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HUMAN CAPITAL, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOME HOUSEHOLDS, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, IRRIGATION, LABOR SUPPLY, LAND USE, MAIZE, MARKET ECONOMY, MEAT, MEAT PROCESSING, NATIONAL CLIMATE, NEGATIVE IMPACTS, NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, NUTRITION, OXYGEN, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, PET, POOR POPULATION, POORER HOUSEHOLDS, POTATOES, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY REDUCTION, PP, PRECIPITATION, PULSES, RAIN, RAINFALL, RAINFALL PATTERNS, REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS, REGIONAL LEVELS, REGIONAL RESULTS, REGIONAL VARIATION, RELATIVE PRICES, RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, RICE, ROOT CROPS, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, RURAL FARM, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, SEASON, SECTORAL RESULTS, SOYBEANS, SUBSTITUTION, SURFACE TEMPERATURES, SUSTAINABILITY SCIENCE, SWEET POTATOES, TAX RATES, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE INCREASE, TEMPERATURES, WEATHER CONDITIONS, WEATHER PATTERNS, WHEAT, WORLD FOOD SUPPLY,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/09/16699070/climate-change-agriculture-food-security-tanzania https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12045
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