Risk and Uncertainty Analysis
One statement that can confidently be made about any transport project is that the costs and benefits are uncertain. An important question is 'how uncertain'? By analyzing the risk and uncertainty which surrounds the project the probability of a poor outcome can be assessed. In addition, it is often possible to identify ways in which the project can be made more robust, and to ensure that the risks that remain are well managed. Risk and uncertainty analysis is therefore a standard component in the project reporting requirements for Bank projects. Risk and uncertainty analysis also features other in Bank tools, such as the RED model (see Note Low Volume Rural Roads). This note reviews the general principles of risk and uncertainty analysis in transport (Section 1); and outlines the three principal methods which may be used- sensitivity analysis (Sectio
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Language: | English |
| Published: |
World Bank, Washington, DC
2005-01
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| Subjects: | ANALYSIS PERIOD, APPLICATIONS, BRIDGE, BRIDGES, CALCULATION, CAR OWNERSHIP, CONFIDENCE LIMITS, CONSTRUCTION, CONSUMERS, COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS, DISCOUNT RATE, ECONOMIC BOOM, ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY, EXPECTED VALUE, FORECASTS, FRAMEWORK, FUEL, GENERATED TRAFFIC, INCOME, INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN, LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS, MONTE CARLO SIMULATION, PASSENGER, PROBABILITY, PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION, RATES, RISK ANALYSIS, RISK ASSESSMENT, RISK AVERSE, RISK MANAGEMENT, RISK PROFILES, RISK TRANSFER, RURAL ROADS, SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS, STRUCTURES, SUSTAINABILITY, TRAFFIC, TRAFFIC GROWTH, TRAFFIC RISK, TRAFFIC VOLUME, TRANSPORT, TRANSPORT ECONOMICS, TRANSPORT PROJECTS, TUNNELS, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2005/01/6371365/risk-uncertainty-analysis https://hdl.handle.net/10986/11793 |
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| Summary: | One statement that can confidently be
made about any transport project is that the costs and
benefits are uncertain. An important question is 'how
uncertain'? By analyzing the risk and uncertainty which
surrounds the project the probability of a poor outcome can
be assessed. In addition, it is often possible to identify
ways in which the project can be made more robust, and to
ensure that the risks that remain are well managed. Risk and
uncertainty analysis is therefore a standard component in
the project reporting requirements for Bank projects. Risk
and uncertainty analysis also features other in Bank tools,
such as the RED model (see Note Low Volume Rural Roads).
This note reviews the general principles of risk and
uncertainty analysis in transport (Section 1); and outlines
the three principal methods which may be used- sensitivity
analysis (Sectio |
|---|