Rwanda : The Impact of Conflict on Growth and Poverty

The human, social and economic costs of Rwanda's Genocide have been staggering. Although the country has made remarkable progress over the last ten years, especially in terms of recovering some of the ground lost on education and health, GDP per capita remains much lower than what it would have been without the Genocide. Per capita GDP today would probably be between 25 and 30 percent higher if the conflict had not taken place. About one fourth of the population in poverty today can be said to be poor as a result of the Genocide.This note provides a measure of the economic cost of the Rwanda Genocide using a technique for the identification and correction of outliers in time series. Specifically, the detection of an outlier in the GDP per capita time series that can be traced to the conflict allows the estimation of the GDP losses associated with the Genocide. Outlier identification and correction, or intervention analysis, is a commonly used procedure when working with time series. In the absence of precise information on the likely effects of a shock, analysts have recently developed and resorted to more refined procedures for outlier identification and correction.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Lopez, Humberto, Wodon, Quentin, Bannon, Ian
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2004-06
Subjects:	CONFLICT, ECONOMIC SHOCKS, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, GENOCIDE, OUTLIERS, INTERVENTIONS, IMPACT EVALUATION, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CAPITA GROWTH, COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION, COUNTERFACTUAL, DATA COLLECTION, DEVELOPMENT GOALS, DISASTERS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ENROLLMENT RATIO, EQUIVALENT CONSUMPTION, EXTREME POVERTY, FOOD BASKET, FOOD COMPONENT, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD EXPENDITURES, FOOD NEEDS, FOOD POVERTY LINE, HEALTH INDICATORS, HEALTH TARGETS, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD LEVEL, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSING, HUMAN CAPITAL, INCOME, INEQUALITY, INJURIES, INTERVENTION, LONG TERM, MALNUTRITION, MEAN CONSUMPTION, MEASURING POVERTY, MIGRATION, MORTALITY, NATIONAL POVERTY, POOR, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY MEASUREMENT, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY, PRIMARY SCHOOL, RAPE, REGRESSION APPROACH, RURAL AREAS, SAVINGS, SCHOOL DROPOUTS, SOCIAL CAPITAL, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL INDICATORS, SOCIAL NETWORKS, URBAN AREAS, VICTIMS, VIOLENCE, WAR,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2004/06/4390810/rwanda-impact-conflict-growth-poverty https://hdl.handle.net/10986/11268
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