Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals
Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the achievement of stringent climate-change mitigation targets requiring the application of negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. Various scenarios simulate global bioenergy demands of 100, 200, 300, and 400 exajoules (EJ) by 2100, with and without a carbon price. Six global energy-economy-agriculture models contribute to this study, with different methodologies and technologies used for bioenergy supply and greenhouse-gas mitigation options for agriculture. We find that the large-scale use of bioenergy, if not implemented properly, would raise food prices and increase the number of people at risk of hunger in many areas of the world. For example, an increase in global bioenergy demand from 200 to 300 EJ causes a − 11% to + 40% change in food crop prices and decreases food consumption from − 45 to − 2 kcal person−1 day−1, leading to an additional 0 to 25 million people at risk of hunger compared with the case of no bioenergy demand (90th percentile range across models). This risk does not rule out the intensive use of bioenergy but shows the importance of its careful implementation, potentially including regulations that protect cropland for food production or for the use of bioenergy feedstock on land that is not competitive with food production.
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Subjects: | S01 - Nutrition humaine - Considérations générales, P06 - Sources d'énergie renouvelable, P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières, adaptation aux changements climatiques, sécurité alimentaire, bioénergie, gestion des ressources naturelles, réduction des émissions, réchauffement global, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10967, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16526, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000115, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34836, |
Online Access: | http://agritrop.cirad.fr/596405/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/596405/7/596405.pdf |
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dig-cirad-fr-5964052024-01-29T02:59:53Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/596405/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/596405/ Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals. Hasegawa Toshihiro, Sands Ronald D., Brunelle Thierry, Cui Yiyun, Frank Stefan, Fujimori Shinichiro, Popp Alexander. 2020. Climatic Change, 163 : 1587-1601.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02838-8 <https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02838-8> Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals Hasegawa, Toshihiro Sands, Ronald D. Brunelle, Thierry Cui, Yiyun Frank, Stefan Fujimori, Shinichiro Popp, Alexander eng 2020 Climatic Change S01 - Nutrition humaine - Considérations générales P06 - Sources d'énergie renouvelable P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières adaptation aux changements climatiques sécurité alimentaire bioénergie gestion des ressources naturelles réduction des émissions réchauffement global http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10967 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16526 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000115 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34836 Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the achievement of stringent climate-change mitigation targets requiring the application of negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. Various scenarios simulate global bioenergy demands of 100, 200, 300, and 400 exajoules (EJ) by 2100, with and without a carbon price. Six global energy-economy-agriculture models contribute to this study, with different methodologies and technologies used for bioenergy supply and greenhouse-gas mitigation options for agriculture. We find that the large-scale use of bioenergy, if not implemented properly, would raise food prices and increase the number of people at risk of hunger in many areas of the world. For example, an increase in global bioenergy demand from 200 to 300 EJ causes a − 11% to + 40% change in food crop prices and decreases food consumption from − 45 to − 2 kcal person−1 day−1, leading to an additional 0 to 25 million people at risk of hunger compared with the case of no bioenergy demand (90th percentile range across models). This risk does not rule out the intensive use of bioenergy but shows the importance of its careful implementation, potentially including regulations that protect cropland for food production or for the use of bioenergy feedstock on land that is not competitive with food production. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/596405/7/596405.pdf text cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02838-8 10.1007/s10584-020-02838-8 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s10584-020-02838-8 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02838-8 info:eu-repo/semantics/reference/purl/https://rdcu.be/b64QJ |
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S01 - Nutrition humaine - Considérations générales P06 - Sources d'énergie renouvelable P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières adaptation aux changements climatiques sécurité alimentaire bioénergie gestion des ressources naturelles réduction des émissions réchauffement global http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10967 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16526 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000115 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34836 S01 - Nutrition humaine - Considérations générales P06 - Sources d'énergie renouvelable P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières adaptation aux changements climatiques sécurité alimentaire bioénergie gestion des ressources naturelles réduction des émissions réchauffement global http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10967 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16526 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000115 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34836 |
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S01 - Nutrition humaine - Considérations générales P06 - Sources d'énergie renouvelable P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières adaptation aux changements climatiques sécurité alimentaire bioénergie gestion des ressources naturelles réduction des émissions réchauffement global http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10967 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16526 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000115 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34836 S01 - Nutrition humaine - Considérations générales P06 - Sources d'énergie renouvelable P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières adaptation aux changements climatiques sécurité alimentaire bioénergie gestion des ressources naturelles réduction des émissions réchauffement global http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10967 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16526 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000115 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34836 Hasegawa, Toshihiro Sands, Ronald D. Brunelle, Thierry Cui, Yiyun Frank, Stefan Fujimori, Shinichiro Popp, Alexander Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals |
description |
Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the achievement of stringent climate-change mitigation targets requiring the application of negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. Various scenarios simulate global bioenergy demands of 100, 200, 300, and 400 exajoules (EJ) by 2100, with and without a carbon price. Six global energy-economy-agriculture models contribute to this study, with different methodologies and technologies used for bioenergy supply and greenhouse-gas mitigation options for agriculture. We find that the large-scale use of bioenergy, if not implemented properly, would raise food prices and increase the number of people at risk of hunger in many areas of the world. For example, an increase in global bioenergy demand from 200 to 300 EJ causes a − 11% to + 40% change in food crop prices and decreases food consumption from − 45 to − 2 kcal person−1 day−1, leading to an additional 0 to 25 million people at risk of hunger compared with the case of no bioenergy demand (90th percentile range across models). This risk does not rule out the intensive use of bioenergy but shows the importance of its careful implementation, potentially including regulations that protect cropland for food production or for the use of bioenergy feedstock on land that is not competitive with food production. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
S01 - Nutrition humaine - Considérations générales P06 - Sources d'énergie renouvelable P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières adaptation aux changements climatiques sécurité alimentaire bioénergie gestion des ressources naturelles réduction des émissions réchauffement global http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374567058134 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10967 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_16526 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000115 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_331597 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_34836 |
author |
Hasegawa, Toshihiro Sands, Ronald D. Brunelle, Thierry Cui, Yiyun Frank, Stefan Fujimori, Shinichiro Popp, Alexander |
author_facet |
Hasegawa, Toshihiro Sands, Ronald D. Brunelle, Thierry Cui, Yiyun Frank, Stefan Fujimori, Shinichiro Popp, Alexander |
author_sort |
Hasegawa, Toshihiro |
title |
Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals |
title_short |
Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals |
title_full |
Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals |
title_fullStr |
Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals |
title_full_unstemmed |
Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals |
title_sort |
food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/596405/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/596405/7/596405.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT hasegawatoshihiro foodsecurityunderhighbioenergydemandtowardlongtermclimategoals AT sandsronaldd foodsecurityunderhighbioenergydemandtowardlongtermclimategoals AT brunellethierry foodsecurityunderhighbioenergydemandtowardlongtermclimategoals AT cuiyiyun foodsecurityunderhighbioenergydemandtowardlongtermclimategoals AT frankstefan foodsecurityunderhighbioenergydemandtowardlongtermclimategoals AT fujimorishinichiro foodsecurityunderhighbioenergydemandtowardlongtermclimategoals AT poppalexander foodsecurityunderhighbioenergydemandtowardlongtermclimategoals |
_version_ |
1792500011507908608 |