An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger
This work assesses the value of climate forecasts for millet growers in Niger. We quantify the potential value of three kinds of categorical forecasts assigning cumulated rainfall during the forthcoming rainy season by tercile (dry, normal, or humid): (i) a realistic imperfect tercile forecast; (ii) a perfect tercile forecast; and (iii) a perfect tercile forecast which includes a prediction of rainy season onset and offset dates. Eighteen management strategies are assessed. Corresponding yields are computed using the SARRA-H crop model then converted into utility by taking into account risk-aversion. Simulations over an historical 18-year period 1990-2007 show that benefit is lowest with imperfect tercile forecasts (+6.9%), higher (+11%) with perfect tercile forecasts, and reaches +31% when enhanced adaptation strategies and additional climatic indices are available. These results show that improving existing forecast systems by including the prediction of onset and cessation of rainfall is of great value.
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Subjects: | U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, F01 - Culture des plantes, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, modélisation des cultures, Cenchrus americanus, rendement des cultures, gestion du risque, précipitation, prévision météorologique, changement climatique, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_13199, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8340, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5181, |
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dig-cirad-fr-5640792024-01-28T20:23:36Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564079/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564079/ An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger. Roudier Philippe, Sultan B., Quirion P., Baron Christian, Alhassane Agali, Traoré Seydou B., Muller Bertrand. 2012. International Journal of Climatology, 32 (5) : 759-771.https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2308 <https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2308> An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger Roudier, Philippe Sultan, B. Quirion, P. Baron, Christian Alhassane, Agali Traoré, Seydou B. Muller, Bertrand eng 2012 International Journal of Climatology U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques F01 - Culture des plantes P40 - Météorologie et climatologie modélisation des cultures Cenchrus americanus rendement des cultures gestion du risque précipitation prévision météorologique changement climatique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_13199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8340 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 Niger http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5181 This work assesses the value of climate forecasts for millet growers in Niger. We quantify the potential value of three kinds of categorical forecasts assigning cumulated rainfall during the forthcoming rainy season by tercile (dry, normal, or humid): (i) a realistic imperfect tercile forecast; (ii) a perfect tercile forecast; and (iii) a perfect tercile forecast which includes a prediction of rainy season onset and offset dates. Eighteen management strategies are assessed. Corresponding yields are computed using the SARRA-H crop model then converted into utility by taking into account risk-aversion. Simulations over an historical 18-year period 1990-2007 show that benefit is lowest with imperfect tercile forecasts (+6.9%), higher (+11%) with perfect tercile forecasts, and reaches +31% when enhanced adaptation strategies and additional climatic indices are available. These results show that improving existing forecast systems by including the prediction of onset and cessation of rainfall is of great value. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564079/1/document_564079.pdf application/pdf Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2308 10.1002/joc.2308 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1002/joc.2308 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.2308 |
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U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques F01 - Culture des plantes P40 - Météorologie et climatologie modélisation des cultures Cenchrus americanus rendement des cultures gestion du risque précipitation prévision météorologique changement climatique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_13199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8340 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5181 U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques F01 - Culture des plantes P40 - Météorologie et climatologie modélisation des cultures Cenchrus americanus rendement des cultures gestion du risque précipitation prévision météorologique changement climatique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_13199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8340 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5181 |
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U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques F01 - Culture des plantes P40 - Météorologie et climatologie modélisation des cultures Cenchrus americanus rendement des cultures gestion du risque précipitation prévision météorologique changement climatique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_13199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8340 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5181 U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques F01 - Culture des plantes P40 - Météorologie et climatologie modélisation des cultures Cenchrus americanus rendement des cultures gestion du risque précipitation prévision météorologique changement climatique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_13199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8340 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5181 Roudier, Philippe Sultan, B. Quirion, P. Baron, Christian Alhassane, Agali Traoré, Seydou B. Muller, Bertrand An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger |
description |
This work assesses the value of climate forecasts for millet growers in Niger. We quantify the potential value of three kinds of categorical forecasts assigning cumulated rainfall during the forthcoming rainy season by tercile (dry, normal, or humid): (i) a realistic imperfect tercile forecast; (ii) a perfect tercile forecast; and (iii) a perfect tercile forecast which includes a prediction of rainy season onset and offset dates. Eighteen management strategies are assessed. Corresponding yields are computed using the SARRA-H crop model then converted into utility by taking into account risk-aversion. Simulations over an historical 18-year period 1990-2007 show that benefit is lowest with imperfect tercile forecasts (+6.9%), higher (+11%) with perfect tercile forecasts, and reaches +31% when enhanced adaptation strategies and additional climatic indices are available. These results show that improving existing forecast systems by including the prediction of onset and cessation of rainfall is of great value. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques F01 - Culture des plantes P40 - Météorologie et climatologie modélisation des cultures Cenchrus americanus rendement des cultures gestion du risque précipitation prévision météorologique changement climatique http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000024 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_13199 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_10176 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_37934 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6161 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8340 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5181 |
author |
Roudier, Philippe Sultan, B. Quirion, P. Baron, Christian Alhassane, Agali Traoré, Seydou B. Muller, Bertrand |
author_facet |
Roudier, Philippe Sultan, B. Quirion, P. Baron, Christian Alhassane, Agali Traoré, Seydou B. Muller, Bertrand |
author_sort |
Roudier, Philippe |
title |
An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger |
title_short |
An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger |
title_full |
An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger |
title_fullStr |
An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger |
title_full_unstemmed |
An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger |
title_sort |
ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in sw niger |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564079/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/564079/1/document_564079.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
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