Modelling an urban water system on the edge of chaos
Viewing an urban water system as a complex adaptive system provides new opportunities for analysis and avoids some critical simplifications. Taking this perspective, it is possible to explore the inter-related effects of changes to the system. This is particularly important in the developing world where donors providing aid aim to improve conditions but struggle to understand and quantify the systemic impacts of their actions. This is because an intervention aiming to improve condition may also have unintended and undesirable effects. To provide decision support, this paper describes an agent-based model of an urban water system, developed on the basis of ethnographic interviews, and subsequently evaluated by local stakeholders. The paper describes the model design as well as the results of scenarios. The model provides guidance on which system amendments may produce the best outcomes in terms of output variables, and on the basis of sense-checking and sensitivity analysis it is judged that model results are likely to give a good indication about possible real world outcomes. It is clear that no single strategy will solve all problems on its own, but that a combined strategy e with a strong focus on groundwater management and protection e is likely to be most successful.
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Subjects: | P10 - Ressources en eau et leur gestion, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, gestion des eaux, approvisionnement en eau, modèle de simulation, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8320, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8328, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3261, |
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dig-cirad-fr-5564572024-01-28T18:35:21Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/556457/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/556457/ Modelling an urban water system on the edge of chaos. Moglia Magnus, Perez Pascal, Burn Stewart. 2010. Environmental Modelling and Software, 25 (12) : 1528-1538.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.05.002 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.05.002> Modelling an urban water system on the edge of chaos Moglia, Magnus Perez, Pascal Burn, Stewart eng 2010 Environmental Modelling and Software P10 - Ressources en eau et leur gestion U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques gestion des eaux approvisionnement en eau modèle de simulation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8320 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 Kiribati http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3261 Viewing an urban water system as a complex adaptive system provides new opportunities for analysis and avoids some critical simplifications. Taking this perspective, it is possible to explore the inter-related effects of changes to the system. This is particularly important in the developing world where donors providing aid aim to improve conditions but struggle to understand and quantify the systemic impacts of their actions. This is because an intervention aiming to improve condition may also have unintended and undesirable effects. To provide decision support, this paper describes an agent-based model of an urban water system, developed on the basis of ethnographic interviews, and subsequently evaluated by local stakeholders. The paper describes the model design as well as the results of scenarios. The model provides guidance on which system amendments may produce the best outcomes in terms of output variables, and on the basis of sense-checking and sensitivity analysis it is judged that model results are likely to give a good indication about possible real world outcomes. It is clear that no single strategy will solve all problems on its own, but that a combined strategy e with a strong focus on groundwater management and protection e is likely to be most successful. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/556457/1/document_556457.pdf application/pdf Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.05.002 10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.05.002 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.05.002 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.05.002 |
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P10 - Ressources en eau et leur gestion U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques gestion des eaux approvisionnement en eau modèle de simulation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8320 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3261 P10 - Ressources en eau et leur gestion U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques gestion des eaux approvisionnement en eau modèle de simulation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8320 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3261 |
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P10 - Ressources en eau et leur gestion U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques gestion des eaux approvisionnement en eau modèle de simulation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8320 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3261 P10 - Ressources en eau et leur gestion U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques gestion des eaux approvisionnement en eau modèle de simulation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8320 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3261 Moglia, Magnus Perez, Pascal Burn, Stewart Modelling an urban water system on the edge of chaos |
description |
Viewing an urban water system as a complex adaptive system provides new opportunities for analysis and avoids some critical simplifications. Taking this perspective, it is possible to explore the inter-related effects of changes to the system. This is particularly important in the developing world where donors providing aid aim to improve conditions but struggle to understand and quantify the systemic impacts of their actions. This is because an intervention aiming to improve condition may also have unintended and undesirable effects. To provide decision support, this paper describes an agent-based model of an urban water system, developed on the basis of ethnographic interviews, and subsequently evaluated by local stakeholders. The paper describes the model design as well as the results of scenarios. The model provides guidance on which system amendments may produce the best outcomes in terms of output variables, and on the basis of sense-checking and sensitivity analysis it is judged that model results are likely to give a good indication about possible real world outcomes. It is clear that no single strategy will solve all problems on its own, but that a combined strategy e with a strong focus on groundwater management and protection e is likely to be most successful. |
format |
article |
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P10 - Ressources en eau et leur gestion U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques gestion des eaux approvisionnement en eau modèle de simulation http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8320 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8328 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_24242 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_3261 |
author |
Moglia, Magnus Perez, Pascal Burn, Stewart |
author_facet |
Moglia, Magnus Perez, Pascal Burn, Stewart |
author_sort |
Moglia, Magnus |
title |
Modelling an urban water system on the edge of chaos |
title_short |
Modelling an urban water system on the edge of chaos |
title_full |
Modelling an urban water system on the edge of chaos |
title_fullStr |
Modelling an urban water system on the edge of chaos |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling an urban water system on the edge of chaos |
title_sort |
modelling an urban water system on the edge of chaos |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/556457/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/556457/1/document_556457.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT mogliamagnus modellinganurbanwatersystemontheedgeofchaos AT perezpascal modellinganurbanwatersystemontheedgeofchaos AT burnstewart modellinganurbanwatersystemontheedgeofchaos |
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1792497639377338368 |