Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?
Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today.
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National Academy of Sciences
2016
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Subjects: | AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY, Food Self-Sufficiency, YIELD GAP, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SUPPLY, CEREALS, |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10883/18137 |
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dig-cimmyt-10883-181372023-11-29T15:05:03Z Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? van Ittersum, M.K. Bussel, L.G.J. van Wolf, J. Grassini, P. Wart, J. van Guilpart, N. Claessens, L. De Groote, H. Wiebe, K. Mason-D’Croz, D. Haishun Yang Boogaard, H. Oort, P.J.A. van Loon, M.P. van Saito, K. Adimo, O. Adjei-Nsiah, S. Agali, A. Bala, A. Chikowo, R. Kaizzi, K. Kouressy, M. Makoi, J.H. Ouattara, K. Fantaye, K.T. Cassman, K.G. AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY Food Self-Sufficiency YIELD GAP FOOD SECURITY FOOD SUPPLY CEREALS Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today. 14964-14969 2017-03-14T21:57:16Z 2017-03-14T21:57:16Z 2016 Article http://hdl.handle.net/10883/18137 10.1073/pnas.1610359113 English https://www.pnas.org/content/113/52/14964/tab-figures-data CIMMYT manages Intellectual Assets as International Public Goods. The user is free to download, print, store and share this work. In case you want to translate or create any other derivative work and share or distribute such translation/derivative work, please contact CIMMYT-Knowledge-Center@cgiar.org indicating the work you want to use and the kind of use you intend; CIMMYT will contact you with the suitable license for that purpose. Open Access PDF Washington, USA National Academy of Sciences 52 113 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
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AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY Food Self-Sufficiency YIELD GAP FOOD SECURITY FOOD SUPPLY CEREALS AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY Food Self-Sufficiency YIELD GAP FOOD SECURITY FOOD SUPPLY CEREALS |
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AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY Food Self-Sufficiency YIELD GAP FOOD SECURITY FOOD SUPPLY CEREALS AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY Food Self-Sufficiency YIELD GAP FOOD SECURITY FOOD SUPPLY CEREALS van Ittersum, M.K. Bussel, L.G.J. van Wolf, J. Grassini, P. Wart, J. van Guilpart, N. Claessens, L. De Groote, H. Wiebe, K. Mason-D’Croz, D. Haishun Yang Boogaard, H. Oort, P.J.A. van Loon, M.P. van Saito, K. Adimo, O. Adjei-Nsiah, S. Agali, A. Bala, A. Chikowo, R. Kaizzi, K. Kouressy, M. Makoi, J.H. Ouattara, K. Fantaye, K.T. Cassman, K.G. Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
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Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today. |
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Article |
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AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND BIOTECHNOLOGY Food Self-Sufficiency YIELD GAP FOOD SECURITY FOOD SUPPLY CEREALS |
author |
van Ittersum, M.K. Bussel, L.G.J. van Wolf, J. Grassini, P. Wart, J. van Guilpart, N. Claessens, L. De Groote, H. Wiebe, K. Mason-D’Croz, D. Haishun Yang Boogaard, H. Oort, P.J.A. van Loon, M.P. van Saito, K. Adimo, O. Adjei-Nsiah, S. Agali, A. Bala, A. Chikowo, R. Kaizzi, K. Kouressy, M. Makoi, J.H. Ouattara, K. Fantaye, K.T. Cassman, K.G. |
author_facet |
van Ittersum, M.K. Bussel, L.G.J. van Wolf, J. Grassini, P. Wart, J. van Guilpart, N. Claessens, L. De Groote, H. Wiebe, K. Mason-D’Croz, D. Haishun Yang Boogaard, H. Oort, P.J.A. van Loon, M.P. van Saito, K. Adimo, O. Adjei-Nsiah, S. Agali, A. Bala, A. Chikowo, R. Kaizzi, K. Kouressy, M. Makoi, J.H. Ouattara, K. Fantaye, K.T. Cassman, K.G. |
author_sort |
van Ittersum, M.K. |
title |
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
title_short |
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
title_full |
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
title_fullStr |
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? |
title_sort |
can sub-saharan africa feed itself? |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10883/18137 |
work_keys_str_mv |
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