Historic development of winter-wheat yields in five irrigation districts in the sonora desert, Mexico

The history of development of winter wheat cultivation in five irrigation districts in northwestern Mexico is analyzed. The accelerated growth of winter wheat yields in northwestern Mexico can be described by adjustment of the parameters of the logistic model. A common variation in the analyzed series exists, which is determined by the positive tendency of the series, a product of the Green Revolution. This event explains 80% of the observed variation. Nevertheless, social and economic conditions, and regional geography, suggest differential development. Four agricultural developments are defined: Borders (Mexicali-San Luis-Río Colorado), Indigenous Agriculture (Ejidales Colonias Yaquis), Private Agriculture (Valle del Yaqui and Mayo), and Pioneers (Valle de Santo Domingo in Baja California Sur). The development of each group is compared with the national efficiency curve. The purpose is to compare wheat yields in the main irrigated valleys of northwestern Mexico during the Green Revolution and the following stabilization, based on social and historic events. The possibility of increasing productivity as a function of the historic maximum reached at regional and national levels is discussed