Are There Lasting Impacts of Aid to Poor Areas? Evidence from Rural China

The paper revisits the site of a large, World Bank-financed, rural development program in China 10 years after it began and four years after disbursements ended. The program emphasized community participation in multi-sectoral interventions (including farming, animal husbandry, infrastructure and social services). Data were collected on 2,000 households in project and nonproject areas, spanning 10 years. A double-difference estimator of the program's impact (on top of pre-existing governmental programs) reveals sizeable short-term income gains that were mostly saved. Only modest gains to mean consumption emerged in the longer term-in rough accord with the gain to permanent income. Certain types of households gained more than others. The educated poor were under-covered by the community-based selection process-greatly reducing overall impact. The main results are robust to corrections for various sources of selection bias, including village targeting and interference due to spillover effects generated by the response of local governments to the external aid.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Mu, Ren, Chen, Shaohua, Ravallion, Martin
Language:	English
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2008-03
Subjects:	ACCESS TO CREDIT, ACCESS TO SERVICES, ACCOUNTING, ACCURATE ESTIMATES, AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT BANK, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AID EFFECTIVENESS, ANNUAL INCOME, ANNUAL RETURNS, ANTI-POVERTY, ANTI-POVERTY POLICIES, ARBITRAGE, ASSETS, AVAILABILITY OF CREDIT, BANK LOANS, BENEFICIARY, BIASES, CALCULATIONS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL STOCKS, CAPITAL-MARKET, CASH EXPENDITURE, CASH TRANSFERS, CD, COMMODITIES, COMMUNITY GROUPS, COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION, COMPARATIVE ECONOMICS, CONSTRAINTS ON ACCESS, CONTINGENCIES, CONTRIBUTION, COUNTERFACTUAL, CREDIT CONSTRAINTS, CREDIT MARKET, CREDIT MARKET FAILURES, DAY-CARE, DEBT, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, DRINKING WATER, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMIC THEORY, EDUCATION LEVEL, ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, ENDOWMENTS, ENROLLMENT, ENROLMENT RATES, ETHNIC MINORITIES, EVALUATION METHODS, EXPENDITURES, EXTREME POVERTY, FAMILY MEMBER, FAMILY MEMBERS, FARM EMPLOYMENT, FARM ENTERPRISES, FARM INCOME, FARM PRODUCTIVITY, FARMERS, FOOD STAPLES, FORM OF CREDIT, FORM OF SAVING, FUTURE INCOME, GENDER, GROWTH RATE, HEALTH INSURANCE, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD PARTICIPATION, HOUSEHOLD SAVING, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLDS, ICR, IMPACT EVALUATION, IMPACT ON POVERTY, IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT, INCOME, INCOME GAINS, INCOME GROUP, INCOME IMPACTS, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVELS, INCOME POVERTY, INCOMES, INEQUALITIES, INEQUALITY, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS, INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, INSURANCE, INTEREST PAYMENTS, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERVENTION, IRRIGATION, JOB TRAINING, LABOR MOBILITY, LACK OF CAPITAL, LAND QUALITY, LIQUIDITY, LOAN, LOAN ACTIVITY, LOAN AMOUNTS, LOAN REPAYMENT, LOAN REPAYMENTS, LOW INCOME, LOW-INCOME, LOW-INCOME GROUP, MARGINAL PRODUCT, MARGINAL PRODUCTS, MARKET FAILURES, MATCHING METHODS, MIGRANT WORKERS, OUTCOME INDICATORS, PARTICIPATORY PROCESSES, PERMANENT INCOME, PERMANENT INCOME HYPOTHESIS, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POOR, POOR AREAS, POOR COUNTRIES, POOR INFRASTRUCTURE, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY IMPACTS, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POVERTY INDEX, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY MONITORING, POVERTY POLICIES, POVERTY POVERTY, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION PROJECT, PRECAUTIONARY SAVING, PRECAUTIONARY SAVINGS, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PROBABILITY, PRODUCTION COSTS, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, PRODUCTION INPUTS, PRODUCTIVE ASSETS, PROGRAMS, PUBLIC ECONOMICS, PUBLIC GOODS, PUBLIC SPENDING, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, QUESTIONNAIRES, RATE OF INTEREST, RATE OF RETURN, RATES OF INTEREST, REFLEXIVE COMPARISONS, REGIONAL POVERTY, RELEVANT POPULATION, REMITTANCES, REMOTE VILLAGES, REPAYMENT, REPAYMENT RATES, REPAYMENTS, RURAL, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, RURAL ECONOMY, RURAL HOUSEHOLD, RURAL LIVING STANDARDS, RURAL ROADS, SALE, SAVINGS, SAVINGS RATE, SELECTION BIAS, SOCIAL SERVICES, SOURCES OF CREDIT, SOURCES OF FINANCE, TARGETING, TEACHER TRAINING, TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, TOTAL COST, TOTAL REVENUE, TRAINING PROGRAM, TREATMENT EFFECTS, TUITION, TYPES OF LOANS, URBAN AREAS, VILLAGE, VILLAGE CHARACTERISTICS, WAGE, WAGE INCOME, WEALTH,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/03/9049219/lasting-impacts-aid-poor-areas-evidence-rural-china https://hdl.handle.net/10986/6590
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