Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States
Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges such as ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of power supply. This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk premium adjustments are introduced per technology and location in order to examine changes in electrification outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural areas, electrification options are more sensitive to conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030.
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Journal Article biblioteca |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI
2020-01-21
|
| Subjects: | CONFLICT-AFFECTED STATES, ELECTRIFICATION, GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS, OnSSET, GIS, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM, |
| Online Access: | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/233391583898995644/Supporting-Electrification-Policy-in-Fragile-States-A-Conflict-Adjusted-Geospatial-Least-Cost-Approach-for-Afghanistan https://hdl.handle.net/10986/33464 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|