South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019
South Asia remained the fastest growing region in the world last year, but growth remained driven by domestic demand – and not exports – which resulted in another year of double-digit volume growth of imports. The value of imports was further pushed up by rising oil prices. The widening current account deficits became more difficult to finance and these tensions triggered capital outflows, depreciation pressures, increases in credit default swap spreads, and falling stock prices. In recent months, however, the data shows a more positive picture. The growth outlook for South Asia assumes that the recent acceleration of export growth continues and that import growth slows. Under these conditions, GDP growth is expected to accelerate. Under current circumstances fiscal tightening is appropriate, not only to make government debt more sustainable, but also to bring the economy back into balance, and thus become less vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in international financial markets. Using a gravity model, we show that South Asian countries export only a third of their potential. If countries export closer to potential, not only would short-term adjustments be easier, but also the long-term growth potential would be higher. Closing the export gap is an essential step in addressing both short-term and long-term macroeconomic challenges in South Asia.
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Format: | Serial biblioteca |
Language: | English |
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Washington, DC: World Bank
2019-04-07
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Subjects: | ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC RISKS, EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY, FISCAL POLICY, INFLATION AND PRICES, INVESTMENT, MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK, TRADE, |
Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10986/31498 |
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dig-okr-10986314982024-07-25T16:05:09Z South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 Exports Wanted World Bank ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RISKS EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL POLICY INFLATION AND PRICES INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK TRADE South Asia remained the fastest growing region in the world last year, but growth remained driven by domestic demand – and not exports – which resulted in another year of double-digit volume growth of imports. The value of imports was further pushed up by rising oil prices. The widening current account deficits became more difficult to finance and these tensions triggered capital outflows, depreciation pressures, increases in credit default swap spreads, and falling stock prices. In recent months, however, the data shows a more positive picture. The growth outlook for South Asia assumes that the recent acceleration of export growth continues and that import growth slows. Under these conditions, GDP growth is expected to accelerate. Under current circumstances fiscal tightening is appropriate, not only to make government debt more sustainable, but also to bring the economy back into balance, and thus become less vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in international financial markets. Using a gravity model, we show that South Asian countries export only a third of their potential. If countries export closer to potential, not only would short-term adjustments be easier, but also the long-term growth potential would be higher. Closing the export gap is an essential step in addressing both short-term and long-term macroeconomic challenges in South Asia. 2019-04-03T20:47:15Z 2019-04-03T20:47:15Z 2019-04-07 Serial Sériel Serial 978-1-4648-1407-5 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/31498 English CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank application/pdf Washington, DC: World Bank |
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ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RISKS EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL POLICY INFLATION AND PRICES INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK TRADE ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RISKS EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL POLICY INFLATION AND PRICES INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK TRADE |
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ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RISKS EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL POLICY INFLATION AND PRICES INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK TRADE ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RISKS EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL POLICY INFLATION AND PRICES INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK TRADE World Bank South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 |
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South Asia remained the fastest growing region in the world last year, but growth remained driven by domestic demand – and not exports – which resulted in another year of double-digit volume growth of imports. The value of imports was further pushed up by rising oil prices. The widening current account deficits became more difficult to finance and these tensions triggered capital outflows, depreciation pressures, increases in credit default swap spreads, and falling stock prices. In recent months, however, the data shows a more positive picture. The growth outlook for South Asia assumes that the recent acceleration of export growth continues and that import growth slows. Under these conditions, GDP growth is expected to accelerate. Under current circumstances fiscal tightening is appropriate, not only to make government debt more sustainable, but also to bring the economy back into balance, and thus become less vulnerable to deteriorating conditions in international financial markets. Using a gravity model, we show that South Asian countries export only a third of their potential. If countries export closer to potential, not only would short-term adjustments be easier, but also the long-term growth potential would be higher. Closing the export gap is an essential step in addressing both short-term and long-term macroeconomic challenges in South Asia. |
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ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIC POLICY ECONOMIC RISKS EXTERNAL VULNERABILITY FISCAL POLICY INFLATION AND PRICES INVESTMENT MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND OUTLOOK TRADE |
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World Bank |
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title |
South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 |
title_short |
South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 |
title_full |
South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 |
title_fullStr |
South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 |
title_full_unstemmed |
South Asia Economic Focus, Spring 2019 |
title_sort |
south asia economic focus, spring 2019 |
publisher |
Washington, DC: World Bank |
publishDate |
2019-04-07 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/10986/31498 |
work_keys_str_mv |
AT worldbank southasiaeconomicfocusspring2019 AT worldbank exportswanted |
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1806032520582529024 |