Poverty and Shared Prosperity in Russia
The Russian Federation has sustained significant growth over the past decade, accompanied by high rates of income mobility for all groups in the population. The positive outcomes in economic growth were accompanied by economic mobility for most households, reflected in substantial poverty reduction. Inclusive growth has led to a positive performance of the country in terms of shared prosperity - measured by the income and consumption growth of the bottom 40 percent of the welfare distribution. Notwithstanding the positive performance observed, the recent trends suggest sustainability concerns. Alongside the inclusive economic growth, economic mobility has improved remarkably in the country as reflected by the growth of the middle class. Upward economic mobility in Russia appears to be the result of both increases in average income levels and changes in the distribution of income. Given the positive outcomes observed, the question is, to what extent is Russia’s favorable performance in terms of shared prosperity sustainable? To this end, this note explores the main drivers behind the progress to date. The evolutions of the labor market, on one hand, and the incidence of the fiscal system, on the other, appear as the two main factors driving the observed poverty reduction, increase in the income of the bottom 40, and growth of the middle class in Russia. The note is structured as follows: section one gives introduction. Section two presents an analysis of labor income, including an overview of market dynamics and the reduction of wage inequality in the country. Section three presents a summary of the lessons derived from the analysis that can inform policy dialogue and contribute to ensuring the sustainability of the progress achieved in shared prosperity going forward.