Afghanistan Economic Update, April 2015
The political and security transition continues to take a heavy toll on Afghanistan’s economy. Economic growth is estimated to have fallen further to 2 percent in 2014 from 3.7 percent in 2013 and an average of 9 percent during 2003-12. Political uncertainty combined with weak reform progress dealt a further blow in 2014 to investor and consumer confidence, already in a slump from uncertainty building since 2013. As a result, growth in the non-agricultural sectors (manufacturing, construction, and services) is estimated to have fallen further in 2014. The agricultural harvest in 2014 was strong for the third year in a row, but was up only marginally from the bumper year of 2012. Agriculture benefited from robust cereals production thanks both to well distributed, timely rainfall and an increase in irrigated area for wheat cultivation. The growth outlook for 2015 remains weak. Afghanistan faces the dual challenge of restoring confidence in its economic prospects and addressing formidable medium term development challenges. The new government articulated its development vision and a bold reform program through its paper ‘realizing self-reliance: commitments to reforms and renewed partnership’ presented at the London Conference on Afghanistan in December 2014. The paper presents the government’s plans for tackling corruption and building better governance, restoring fiscal sustainability, bolstering private sector confidence, promoting growth, and improving security and political stability. Successful implementation of this bold reform program under difficult circumstances is the major challenge facing Afghanistan.