Strengthening Recovery in Central and Eastern Europe : EU11 Regular Economic Report

Economic growth is expected to almost double in EU11 (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Slovenia) in 2014, and continue to strengthen in 2015. The northern countries of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania will continue to be amongst the fastest growing countries in the EU, despite the negative impact of falling external demand as growth slows in their main trading partners. Croatia is the only country expected to remain in recession, for a sixth consecutive year, in 2014, as declining domestic demand continues to outweigh export growth. Recovery is expected to be gradual, with growth not reaching pre-crisis rates for some time. Inflation rates are expected to remain below targets during 2014, with some countries already experiencing deflation, but as global commodity prices stabilize, activity increases and output gaps diminish, inflation is expected to gradually rise. Fiscal consolidation will continue in 2014 and 2015, but at a more gradual pace than in the previous years. Economic growth forecasts in the EU11 are subject to multiple risks, mainly on the downside, as the global financial situation remains fragile. Rising global interest rates coupled with volatile capital markets, or an extended period of regional geopolitical tensions could slow the European recovery and constrain exports, credit and investment in EU11. While labor market conditions have started to improve, the pace of job creation and reduction in unemployment rates are likely to be gradual. Many of the economies in the EU11 face the twin challenge of high youth unemployment and rapidly aging populations. EU11 countries also struggle with equipping the next generation with the skills necessary to achieve their full potential e.g. in literacy, math and science. The persistence of large numbers of inactive and unemployed youth therefore poses unique risks of creating a "lost generation" of workers. Understanding the cyclical and structural nature of youth unemployment is therefore important to mitigate the potentially damaging cycle between youth unemployment and broader economic growth and productivity.

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	World Bank
Language:	English en_US
Published:	Washington, DC 2014-01
Subjects:	AGRICULTURE, ASSET MANAGEMENT, ASSET QUALITY, ASSET-BACKED SECURITIES, BALANCE SHEET, BANK BALANCE SHEETS, BANK FINANCING, BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, BANK LENDING, BANK LINKAGES, BANK RECAPITALIZATION, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SECTORS, BANKING SYSTEM, BANKRUPTCY, BASIS POINTS, BOND, BOND SWAP, BOOK-ENTRY, CAPITAL FLIGHT, CAPITAL FLOW, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL MARKETS, CAPITAL STOCK, CDS, CENTRAL BANK, CENTRAL BANKS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER LOANS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, CONSUMPTION TAXES, CORPORATE BONDS, CREDIT DEFAULT, CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT RATING, CREDIT RATINGS, CREDIT RISKS, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUSES, DEBT, DEBT BURDENS, DEBT CRISES, DEBT CRISIS, DEBT LEVELS, DEFLATION, DEMAND FOR CREDIT, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITS, DEVALUATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPING COUNTRY EQUITY, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DURABLE, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC EXPANSION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC POLICIES, EIB, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, EMERGING MARKETS, EQUITY CAPITAL, EQUITY INVESTMENT, EQUITY MARKETS, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, EXCHANGE RATE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL FUNDING, FEDERAL RESERVE, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK, FINANCIAL FLOWS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SECTOR INDICATORS, FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICY, FLOATING EXCHANGE RATES, FORECASTS, FOREIGN BANK, FOREIGN BANKS, FOREIGN CAPITAL, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FULL EMPLOYMENT, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY, GOVERNMENT BONDS, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH, GROWTH RATE, HOST COUNTRY, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HOUSEHOLD SAVING, HOUSING, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME INEQUALITIES, INCOME TAX, INDEBTEDNESS, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INFLATION RATES, INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, INTEREST PAYMENTS, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BANKING, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS, INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS, INVENTORIES, INVESTMENT ACTIVITY, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, INVESTMENT RATES, JUDICIAL SYSTEM, LABOR COSTS, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LEGAL FRAMEWORKS, LIQUIDITY, LOAN, LOCAL MARKETS, LONG-TERM INTEREST, LONG-TERM INTEREST RATES, MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET REFORM, MARKET REFORMS, MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIES, MINISTRIES OF FINANCE, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICIES, MONETARY POLICY, NATIONAL BANK, NET EXPORTS, NON-PERFORMING LOAN, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, NONPERFORMING LOANS, NPL, PENSION, PENSION REFORM, PENSION SYSTEM, PENSIONS, PER CAPITA INCOME, PERSONAL INCOME, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS, PORTFOLIOS, PRICE DECLINES, PRICE STABILITY, PRIVATE CAPITAL, PRODUCTIVITY, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC FINANCE, PUBLIC FINANCES, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SECTOR BORROWING, PURCHASING POWER, RATES OF INFLATION, REAL ESTATE LOANS, REAL GDP, REAL INTEREST, REAL INTEREST RATES, RECAPITALIZATION, RECESSION, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, REGULATORY FRAMEWORKS, RETURN, RISK AVERSION, RISK FACTOR, SECURITIES, SECURITIES MARKETS, SOLVENCY, SOVEREIGN BONDS, SOVEREIGN DEBT, SOVEREIGN RATING, SOVEREIGN RATINGS, STOCKS, SUBSIDIARIES, SUBSIDIARY, SUPPLY OF CREDIT, TAX RATE, TAXATION, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE BALANCES, TRADING, TRANSACTION, TRANSPARENCY, TREASURIES, TURNOVER, UNDERLYING ASSETS, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, VALUE ADDED, WAGES, WEALTH, WITHDRAWAL,
Online Access:	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/01/19796256/macroeconomic-report-strengthening-recovery-central-eastern-europe https://hdl.handle.net/10986/20072
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