Global Economic Prospects : Commodity Markets Outlook, January 2014

With the exception of energy, all the key commodity price indices declined significantly in 2013. Fertilizer prices led the decline, down 17.4 percent from 2012, followed by precious metals (down almost 17 percent), agriculture (-7.2 percent), and metals (-5.5 percent). Crude oil prices (World Bank average), which have been remarkably stable during the past three years, averaged $104/barrel (bbl) during 2013, marginally lower than the $105/bbl average of 2012. Most non-energy commodity prices, notably grains, followed a downward path during 2013. Other risks for agricultural markets are mostly on the downside as well. For example, the risk of trade policies impacting agricultural prices is low as evidenced by the absence of any export restrictions during 2011-13, despite several spikes in prices (notably maize and wheat). Finally, production of biofuels experienced a third year of little (or no) growth, as policy makers increasingly realize that the environmental and energy independence benefits from biofuels may not outweigh the costs.

Bibliographic Details

Main Authors:	Baffes, John, Cosic, Damir
Format:	Working Paper biblioteca
Language:	English en_US
Published:	World Bank, Washington, DC 2014-01
Subjects:	AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL PRICE, AGRICULTURAL PRICES, APPROACH, AUCTIONS, AVAILABILITY, BALANCE, BOND, BOND PURCHASES, BORROWING COUNTRIES, CENTRAL BANK, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, COAL, COAL PRICES, COCOA PRICES, COFFEE PRICES, COMMERCIALIZATION, COMMODITY, COMMODITY MARKETS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSUMER DEMAND, COST OF CAPITAL, COTTON PRICES, CRUDE OIL, CRUDE OIL CONSUMPTION, CRUDE OIL PRICE, CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION, CRUDE OIL SUPPLIES, CURRENCY, DATA AVAILABILITY, DEBT, DEMAND GROWTH, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DIVIDEND, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC PRICE, DOMESTIC PRICES, DRILLING, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EFFICIENCY GAINS, EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENTS, ELECTRICITY, ELECTRICITY GENERATION, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EMISSIONS, ENERGY COSTS, ENERGY ECONOMICS, ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION, ENERGY MARKETS, ENERGY POLICY, ENERGY PRICES, ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS, EQUILIBRIUM PRICE, EQUITY MARKET, EQUITY MARKETS, ETHANOL, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURES, FAIR, FEDERAL RESERVE, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCING ARRANGEMENTS, FISCAL POLICY, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, FUTURES, GAS PIPELINES, GAS SUPPLIES, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL MARKET, GLOBAL OUTPUT, GLOBAL RISK, GOLD PRICES, HEDGE FUND, HIGH ENERGY INTENSITY, HOME COUNTRIES, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOMES, INFLATION, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, INFORMATION SYSTEM, INPUT PRICES, INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, INSURANCE, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, INVENTORIES, INVENTORY, LARGE-SCALE INVESTMENTS, LIQUIDITY, LNG, LNG FACILITIES, LOCAL CURRENCIES, LOWER PRICES, MARGINAL PRICE, MARKET ANALYSIS, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET PERFORMANCE, MARKET PRICES, MARKET VOLATILITY, MARKETING, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICY, NATURAL GAS, NATURAL GAS PRICES, NATURAL RESOURCES, NUCLEAR POWER, OIL, OIL DEMAND, OIL EQUIVALENT, OIL EXPORTS, OIL MARKETS, OIL OUTPUT, OIL PRICE, OIL PRICES, OIL SHOCKS, OIL SPILLS, OIL SUPPLY, OILS, PIPELINE, POLICY ANALYSIS, POLICY MAKERS, POLITICAL ECONOMY, PORTFOLIO, PORTFOLIO MANAGERS, POTASSIUM, POWER PARITY, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES, PRICE CHANGE, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE FORECAST, PRICE FORECASTS, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INDEX, PRICE INDEXES, PRICE INDICES, PRICE INFLATION, PRICE LEVEL, PRICE LEVELS, PRICE MOVEMENTS, PRICE OF OIL, PRICE RISKS, PRICE TREND, PRICE TRENDS, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRODUCER PRICES, PUBLIC POLICY, PURCHASING, PURCHASING POWER, RAPID EXPANSION, RAW MATERIAL, RAW MATERIALS, RECOVERABLE RESERVES, RELATIVE PRICE, RESERVE BANK, RESOURCE ECONOMICS, SOYBEAN MEAL, SOYBEAN OIL, SPREAD, STOCKS, SUBSTITUTION, SUPPLIER, SUPPLIERS, SUPPLY SIDE, SURPLUS, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADING SESSIONS, TREASURY, TREASURY BILLS, VOLATILITY, WHOLESALE PRICES, WORLD CONSUMPTION,
Online Access:	http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18996
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