500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings
12 Pág.
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| Format: | artículo biblioteca |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-09
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| Subjects: | Bayesian regression, Climate variability, Dendrochronology, Palaeohydrology, River discharge, Water supply, |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/334645 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001773 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85165369980 |
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dig-inia-es-10261-3346452024-05-18T20:49:47Z 500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings Sharifazari, S. Palmer, Jonathan Higgins, Philippa Rao, Mukund Palat Johnson, Fiona Turney, C.S.M. Martín Benito, Darío Andersen, M. S. Australian Government European Commission Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España) University of New South Wales (Australia) Sharifazari, S. [0000-0001-9280-3502] Palmer, Jonathan [0000-0002-6665-4483] Higgins, Philippa [0000-0002-6626-1401] Rao, Mukund Palat [0000-0003-3398-2453] Johnson, Fiona [0000-0001-5708-1807] Turney, C.S.M. [0000-0001-6733-0993] Martín Benito, Darío [0000-0002-6738-3312] Bayesian regression Climate variability Dendrochronology Palaeohydrology River discharge Water supply 12 Pág. Long-term river discharge records are essential for water resource management, especially in semi-arid regions. However, the short instrumental records in Iran and the limited availability of local paleoclimate proxies to extend these records hinder our understanding of the full range of hydrologic variability. To help overcome these constraints, we have used annually-resolved tree-ring width chronologies from a network of sites spanning the eastern Mediterranean to the Tibetan Plateau to develop the first multi-centennial (∼500 years) river discharge reconstruction for the Dez River basin, a catchment that supports substantial water extraction in southwestern Iran. A Hierarchical Bayesian Regression (HBR) model accompanied by parsimonious predictor selection was used to derive the most robust model output. The selection method retained 26 precipitation-sensitive tree-ring width chronologies, mainly from regions with similar hydroclimate features to the Dez River basin. The resulting reconstruction of the most downstream gauging station accounts for 62% of the variance in river discharge observations, closely matching known historical events and other regional reconstructions. Notably, the underlying recurrence pattern of extreme flow conditions suggests floods were more frequent than low flow extremes (i.e., droughts) during much of the 18th and early 19th centuries. In contrast, during the early 17th century, droughts were more frequent. Worryingly, the frequency of both floods and droughts has increased simultaneously since the beginning of the twentieth century. Our reconstruction could be used to assess current water allocation strategies under conditions similar to past extended dry periods. When combined with future projections, they can help provide more robust assessment scenarios for water management. Australian Government Research Training Scholarships and the UNSW Scientia PhD Scholarship Schemes support SSH and PAH. MPR is supported by a European Union Horizon 2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant #101031748 and NOAA Climate and Global Change Fellowship under UCAR CPAESS award #NA18NWS4620043B. The UNSW Scientia Program supports FJ. DMB was funded by project RYC-2017-23389 from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation MCIN/AEI. The University of New South Wales facilitated open-access publishing as part of the ScienceDirect (Elsevier) - University of New South Wales agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians. Peer reviewed 2023-09-07T06:11:37Z 2023-09-07T06:11:37Z 2023-09 artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 Journal of Hydrology - Amsterdam 624: e129895 (2023) 0022-1694 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/334645 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129895 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001773 2-s2.0-85165369980 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85165369980 en #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020//101031748 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI//RYC-2017-23389 Instituto de Ciencias Forestales (ICIFOR) Publisher's version https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129895 Sí open application/pdf Elsevier |
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Bayesian regression Climate variability Dendrochronology Palaeohydrology River discharge Water supply Bayesian regression Climate variability Dendrochronology Palaeohydrology River discharge Water supply |
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Bayesian regression Climate variability Dendrochronology Palaeohydrology River discharge Water supply Bayesian regression Climate variability Dendrochronology Palaeohydrology River discharge Water supply Sharifazari, S. Palmer, Jonathan Higgins, Philippa Rao, Mukund Palat Johnson, Fiona Turney, C.S.M. Martín Benito, Darío Andersen, M. S. 500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings |
| description |
12 Pág. |
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Australian Government |
| author_facet |
Australian Government Sharifazari, S. Palmer, Jonathan Higgins, Philippa Rao, Mukund Palat Johnson, Fiona Turney, C.S.M. Martín Benito, Darío Andersen, M. S. |
| format |
artículo |
| topic_facet |
Bayesian regression Climate variability Dendrochronology Palaeohydrology River discharge Water supply |
| author |
Sharifazari, S. Palmer, Jonathan Higgins, Philippa Rao, Mukund Palat Johnson, Fiona Turney, C.S.M. Martín Benito, Darío Andersen, M. S. |
| author_sort |
Sharifazari, S. |
| title |
500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings |
| title_short |
500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings |
| title_full |
500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings |
| title_fullStr |
500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings |
| title_full_unstemmed |
500-year reconstruction of Dez River discharge in southwestern Iran from tree rings |
| title_sort |
500-year reconstruction of dez river discharge in southwestern iran from tree rings |
| publisher |
Elsevier |
| publishDate |
2023-09 |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/334645 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000780 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004837 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001773 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85165369980 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
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1802819780941447168 |