[Identificación de sistemas óptimos de producción lechera en un ambiente económico cambiante usando modelos agrarios de programación lineal]

In Northern Ireland, milk production is the most important farm enterprise and also one of the most profitable. However, with falling milk prices, continued reforms of the CAP and pressures from WTO, dairy farmers are facing fundamental changes in their economic environment. This thesis examines the influence of these anticipated changes on milk production methods in 3 distinct regions of Northern Ireland and, to this ends, employs data generated from scientific research. Linear programming models are developed and used to identify optimal milk production systems under a profit maximizing objective function. The methodology employed is based on the engineering production function approach, that is, the production function is established through the real (i.e. non-monetary) technical relationships between inputs and outputs for all the various sub - processes which comprise the overall productive activity. A wide range of alternative milk production technologies are incorporated into the models, involving variations in date of calving, level of nitrogen fertilizer application, quality of silage, genetic potential of the dairy cow, quantity of concentrate fed and length of grazing season. Changes in sector policies and input - output prices are then examined and compared in a six scenario framework. The model results highlight differences in the optimal milk production system and farm profit according to variations in grassland production and grazing efficiency between regions. Under a milk quota situation, an autumn production system, with high milk yields per cow, based on silage and concentrate would be optimal for areas with the worst grass production and grazing efficiency. In contrast, grass based spring systems with lower milk yields, would be optimal for zones with higher grass yields and better grazing conditions. Although significant reductions in farm profit were observed as milk prices were reduced with quotas in place (i.e. Berlin Agreement CAP reforms) the production systems did not experience any major changes. The results show that the affect of anticipated milk price reduction would not be compensated by for anticipated reductions in concentrate prices and the additional direct subsidy payments. As milk quota is removed, optimal systems changed dramatically with respect to a quota situation. Despite the differences in inputoutput prices which were examined, there were not differences in the optimal production systems between the zones. In these cases, the optimal production method involved autumn calving, high quality silage, significant inputs of concentrate and high milk yields per cow. In addition, under this circumstance the milk enterprise increased its activity levels by 50 percent compared with the quota situations, with capital availability restricting further expansion of the dairy enterprise. The model's results were shown to be generally robust to changes in seasonal milk prices, culling rates, concentrate price, silage costs and farm capital availability

Bibliographic Details

Main Author:	Valencia B., Víctor
Other Authors:	Queen's University of Belfast. Faculty of Agriculture and Food Science
Format:	Tesis biblioteca
Published:	2000
Subjects:	ganado lechero, produccion lechera, sistema de produccion, explotaciones agropecuarias, factores de produccion, rentabilidad, analisis economico, modelos, programacion lineal,
Online Access:	https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14001/56454
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