Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters
/© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | artículo biblioteca |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2024-04-20
|
| Subjects: | Trend analysis, Air pollution, Atmospheric thermodynamics, Desert dust, Multilinear statistical models, Risk analysis, Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all, Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all, Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation, Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, |
| Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/10261/350647 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85186550203 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| id |
dig-idaea-es-10261-350647 |
|---|---|
| record_format |
koha |
| institution |
IDAEA ES |
| collection |
DSpace |
| country |
España |
| countrycode |
ES |
| component |
Bibliográfico |
| access |
En linea |
| databasecode |
dig-idaea-es |
| tag |
biblioteca |
| region |
Europa del Sur |
| libraryname |
Biblioteca del IDAEA España |
| language |
English |
| topic |
Trend analysis Air pollution Atmospheric thermodynamics Desert dust Multilinear statistical models Risk analysis Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts Trend analysis Air pollution Atmospheric thermodynamics Desert dust Multilinear statistical models Risk analysis Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts |
| spellingShingle |
Trend analysis Air pollution Atmospheric thermodynamics Desert dust Multilinear statistical models Risk analysis Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts Trend analysis Air pollution Atmospheric thermodynamics Desert dust Multilinear statistical models Risk analysis Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts Salvador, Pedro Pey, Jorge Pérez, Noemí Alastuey, Andrés Querol, Xavier Artíñano, Begoña Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters |
| description |
/© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). |
| author2 |
Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) |
| author_facet |
Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) Salvador, Pedro Pey, Jorge Pérez, Noemí Alastuey, Andrés Querol, Xavier Artíñano, Begoña |
| format |
artículo |
| topic_facet |
Trend analysis Air pollution Atmospheric thermodynamics Desert dust Multilinear statistical models Risk analysis Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts |
| author |
Salvador, Pedro Pey, Jorge Pérez, Noemí Alastuey, Andrés Querol, Xavier Artíñano, Begoña |
| author_sort |
Salvador, Pedro |
| title |
Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters |
| title_short |
Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters |
| title_full |
Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters |
| title_fullStr |
Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters |
| title_sort |
estimating the probability of occurrence of african dust outbreaks over regions of the western mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters |
| publisher |
Elsevier |
| publishDate |
2024-04-20 |
| url |
http://hdl.handle.net/10261/350647 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85186550203 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT salvadorpedro estimatingtheprobabilityofoccurrenceofafricandustoutbreaksoverregionsofthewesternmediterraneanbasinfromthermodynamicatmosphericparameters AT peyjorge estimatingtheprobabilityofoccurrenceofafricandustoutbreaksoverregionsofthewesternmediterraneanbasinfromthermodynamicatmosphericparameters AT pereznoemi estimatingtheprobabilityofoccurrenceofafricandustoutbreaksoverregionsofthewesternmediterraneanbasinfromthermodynamicatmosphericparameters AT alastueyandres estimatingtheprobabilityofoccurrenceofafricandustoutbreaksoverregionsofthewesternmediterraneanbasinfromthermodynamicatmosphericparameters AT querolxavier estimatingtheprobabilityofoccurrenceofafricandustoutbreaksoverregionsofthewesternmediterraneanbasinfromthermodynamicatmosphericparameters AT artinanobegona estimatingtheprobabilityofoccurrenceofafricandustoutbreaksoverregionsofthewesternmediterraneanbasinfromthermodynamicatmosphericparameters |
| _version_ |
1802820449555447808 |
| spelling |
dig-idaea-es-10261-3506472024-05-20T10:04:06Z Estimating the probability of occurrence of African dust outbreaks over regions of the western Mediterranean basin from thermodynamic atmospheric parameters Salvador, Pedro Pey, Jorge Pérez, Noemí Alastuey, Andrés Querol, Xavier Artíñano, Begoña Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España) Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España) Ministerio para la Transición Ecológica y el Reto Demográfico (España) Trend analysis Air pollution Atmospheric thermodynamics Desert dust Multilinear statistical models Risk analysis Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts /© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Desert dust is currently recognized as a health risk factor. Therefore, the World Health Organization (WHO) is actively promoting the establishment of early warning systems for sand and dust storms. This study introduces a methodology to estimate the probability of African dust outbreaks occurring in eight different regions of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. In each region, a multilinear regression model was developed to calculate daily probabilities of dust events using three thermodynamic variables (geopotential thickness in the 1000-500 hPa layer, mean potential temperature between 925 and 700 hPa, and temperature anomalies at 850 hPa) as assessment parameters. All days with African dust transport over each study region were identified in the period 2001-2021 using a proven procedure. This information was then utilized to establish a functional relationship between the values of the thermodynamic parameters and the probability of African dust outbreaks occurring. The validation of this methodology involved comparing the daily probabilities of dust events generated by the models in 2001-2021 with the daily African dust contributions to PM10 regional background levels in each region. On average, daily dust contributions increased proportionally with the increase in daily probabilities, reaching zero for days with low probabilities. Furthermore, a well-defined seasonal evolution of probability values was observed in all regions, with the highest values in the summer months and the lowest in the winter period, ensuring the physical relevance of the models' results. Finally, upward trends were observed in all regions for the three thermodynamic parameters over 1940-2021. Thus, the probability of dust events development also increased in this period. It demonstrates that the aggravation of warm conditions in southern Europe in the last decades, have modified the frequency of North-African dust outbreaks over the western Mediterranean basin. This research received support from the POSAHPI project (Gobierno de España, Agencia Estatal de Investigación, grant PID2019-108101RB-I00), and the ASAH-AS project (Grants for scientific research projects in the National Parks Network for the year 2021, Spanish Ministry for the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge, ref. 2799/2021). The authors extend their gratitude to the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) for the provision of the HYSPLIT trajectory model (https://www.arl.noaa.gov/hysplit/hysplit/), the Atmospheric Modelling & Weather Forecasting Group - University of Athens (http://forecast.uoa.gr), the Earth Science Department - Barcelona Supercomputing Centre (https://dust.aemet.es/products/daily-dust-products), the Naval Research Laboratory (https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol/) and the NASA (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/) for the provision of the SKIRON, DREAM/BSC-DREAM8b and MONARCH, NAAPs aerosol maps and the satellite imagery, respectively. Hersbach et al. (2023) was downloaded from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (2023). The results contain modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2023. Neither the European Commission nor ECMWF is responsible for any use that may be made of the Copernicus information or data it contains. Peer reviewed 2024-03-18T07:28:03Z 2024-03-18T07:28:03Z 2024-04-20 artículo http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 Science of The Total Environment 922: 171307 (2024) 0048-9697 http://hdl.handle.net/10261/350647 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171307 1879-1026 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100011033 38428593 2-s2.0-85186550203 https://api.elsevier.com/content/abstract/scopus_id/85186550203 en #PLACEHOLDER_PARENT_METADATA_VALUE# info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/AEI/Plan Estatal de Investigación Científica y Técnica y de Innovación 2017-2020/PID2019-108101RB-I00/ES/POLVO SAHARIANO EN LA PENINSULA IBERICA Y EN LAS ISLAS BALEARES: DINAMICA ACTUAL, RECONSTRUCCION DURANTE EL HOLOCENO Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS DECADAS/ The Science of the total environment Publisher's version The underlying dataset has been published as supplementary material of the article in the publisher platform at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171307 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171307 Sí open application/pdf Elsevier |