What future for smallholder farms and farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa? Lessons learned from participatory scenario analysis in West, East and southern Africa
Across Africa, a transition towards sustainable smallholder farming systems is urgently needed. Yet, climate, demographic and market drivers create uncertainty and stakeholders diverge on the desired future and how to get there. Here, we draw lessons from participatory scenario analyses across contrasting regions. We aimed to explore scenarios with local actors, based on a range of sustainability indicators, and to identify the required policy and agricultural interventions to underpin the transition towards sustainable farming systems. Three case studies included a dryland, sub-humid and highland zone in Zimbabwe, Mali and Uganda, respectively. Scenarios were co-constructed in iterative processes with diverse actors based on the major drivers. First, future desired states 20-30 years ahead were envisioned with stakeholders. Next, researchers used integrated farm-level modelling to quantify sustainability indicators encompassing agricultural productivity, food security, income, nutrient balances, greenhouse gas emissions and labour constraints. We assessed distributional effects based on socio-economic data from household surveys covering entire farm populations. Finally, modelling results were discussed with stakeholders to identify interventions enabling the transitions. Scenarios differed across cases, but business-as-usual always decreased performance across sustainability domains as climate change and demographic growth resulted in less food and income per capita. Technological (e.g. improved varieties) or farm management (e.g. crop-livestock integration) improvements alone were insufficient to lift farmers out of poverty and create resilience. Drastic improvements in soil fertility and pest and disease management were required to narrow yield gaps and larger cropland and herd size were needed for tangible improvements in household income and food security. Stakeholders agreed that these transitions required off-farm employment combined with family planning, better functioning markets, and access to credit and insurance mechanisms. Intensification of agriculture led to environmental trade-offs (e.g. increased emissions), which could be mitigated through keeping less but more productive livestock and smart fertilization. Another trade-off resulted from curbing population pressure: whereas food and income per capita improved, labour shortages increased, signifying the importance of labour-saving technologies. Outcomes of the scenarios varied across the farm population, and scenarios with specific support packages for vulnerable households were most successful in generating equitable benefits. We conclude that the participatory scenario analyses generated evidence-based and actionable information for decision makers. Actor engagement contextualized the scenarios and the modelling. Conversely, quantitative evidence helped stakeholders to plan actions for transitioning towards sustainable farming systems. Although smallholders are vulnerable to climate change, it was most urgent to remove current constraints in the socio-institutional context.
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | conference_item biblioteca |
| Language: | eng |
| Published: |
Elsevier
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| Online Access: | http://agritrop.cirad.fr/609936/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/609936/14/What%20future%20for%20smallholder%20farms%20and%20farming%20systems%20in%20SSA_V2.pdf |
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