Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: Demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam
While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods – wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling – we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens.
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Subjects: | L73 - Maladies des animaux, E21 - Agro-industrie, E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, zoonose, grippe aviaire hautement pathogène, épidémiologie, commerce agricole, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8530, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6ab6bbb1, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8682, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8227, |
Online Access: | http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591538/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591538/1/s41598-017-06244-6.pdf |
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dig-cirad-fr-5915382024-01-29T01:43:34Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591538/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591538/ Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: Demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam. Delabouglise Alexis, Choisy Marc, Phan Thang D., Antoine-Moussiaux Nicolas, Peyre Marie-Isabelle, Vu Ton Dinh, Pfeiffer Dirk Udo, Fournié Guillaume. 2017. Scientific Reports, 7:5905, 14 p.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06244-6 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06244-6> Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: Demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam Delabouglise, Alexis Choisy, Marc Phan, Thang D. Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas Peyre, Marie-Isabelle Vu, Ton Dinh Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo Fournié, Guillaume eng 2017 Scientific Reports L73 - Maladies des animaux E21 - Agro-industrie E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques zoonose grippe aviaire hautement pathogène épidémiologie commerce agricole http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8530 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6ab6bbb1 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8682 Viet Nam http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8227 While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods – wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling – we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591538/1/s41598-017-06244-6.pdf text cc_by info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06244-6 10.1038/s41598-017-06244-6 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/s41598-017-06244-6 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06244-6 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/310806//(EU) Providing a new generation of methodologies and tools for cost-effective risk-based animal health surveillance systems for the benefit of livestock producers, decision makers and consumers/RISKSUR |
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L73 - Maladies des animaux E21 - Agro-industrie E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques zoonose grippe aviaire hautement pathogène épidémiologie commerce agricole http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8530 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6ab6bbb1 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8682 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8227 L73 - Maladies des animaux E21 - Agro-industrie E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques zoonose grippe aviaire hautement pathogène épidémiologie commerce agricole http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8530 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6ab6bbb1 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8682 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8227 |
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L73 - Maladies des animaux E21 - Agro-industrie E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques zoonose grippe aviaire hautement pathogène épidémiologie commerce agricole http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8530 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6ab6bbb1 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8682 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8227 L73 - Maladies des animaux E21 - Agro-industrie E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques zoonose grippe aviaire hautement pathogène épidémiologie commerce agricole http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8530 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6ab6bbb1 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8682 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8227 Delabouglise, Alexis Choisy, Marc Phan, Thang D. Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas Peyre, Marie-Isabelle Vu, Ton Dinh Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo Fournié, Guillaume Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: Demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam |
description |
While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods – wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling – we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
L73 - Maladies des animaux E21 - Agro-industrie E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques zoonose grippe aviaire hautement pathogène épidémiologie commerce agricole http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8530 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6ab6bbb1 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_2615 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8682 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8227 |
author |
Delabouglise, Alexis Choisy, Marc Phan, Thang D. Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas Peyre, Marie-Isabelle Vu, Ton Dinh Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo Fournié, Guillaume |
author_facet |
Delabouglise, Alexis Choisy, Marc Phan, Thang D. Antoine-Moussiaux, Nicolas Peyre, Marie-Isabelle Vu, Ton Dinh Pfeiffer, Dirk Udo Fournié, Guillaume |
author_sort |
Delabouglise, Alexis |
title |
Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: Demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam |
title_short |
Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: Demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam |
title_full |
Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: Demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam |
title_fullStr |
Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: Demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam |
title_full_unstemmed |
Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: Demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam |
title_sort |
economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in vietnam |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591538/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/591538/1/s41598-017-06244-6.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
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