Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the socio-economic vulnerability of rural Sahelian households in a context of climatic variability
Policy makers need to predict the socio-economic vulnerability of their populations to climate change. The method proposed in this paper links the outputs of five regional climate models (CCLM, HadRM3P, RACMO, RCA and REMO) to a compartmental model. The method was applied to a representative village in the Sahelian region of Burkina Faso. The integrated model shows the evolution of three socio-economic groups (“Less vulnerable”, “Vulnerable” and “More vulnerable”) up to 2050 and accounts for farmers strategies, policy interventions and climate. A mathematical analysis of the model confirmed its robustness. The simulations showed no transition from “Vulnerable” to the “More vulnerable” group. The five regional climate model outputs implemented under scenario A1B of the IPCC show that the populations of the village will be “Less vulnerable” to climatic variability, with a percentage likelihood of between 65 and 85%. The “More vulnerable” group can migrate to the “Less vulnerable” group and vice-versa as these two groups transit by the group of the “Vulnerable”. The only covariate risk we considered is climate, particularly rainfall variability. The vulnerability method developed here can be applied in any situation in which it is possible to evaluate the coefficients of transition from one vulnerability group to another.
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Subjects: | E50 - Sociologie rurale, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, changement climatique, population rurale, moyens d'existence, résilience, simulation, modélisation environnementale, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6705, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374498089962, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374480530924, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5209, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000056, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8081, http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6734, |
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dig-cirad-fr-5882032024-01-29T01:05:06Z http://agritrop.cirad.fr/588203/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/588203/ Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the socio-economic vulnerability of rural Sahelian households in a context of climatic variability. Zorom Malicki, Barbier Bruno, Gouba Elisée, Somé Blaise. 2018. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 4 (3) : 1213-1223.https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0489-y <https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0489-y> Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the socio-economic vulnerability of rural Sahelian households in a context of climatic variability Zorom, Malicki Barbier, Bruno Gouba, Elisée Somé, Blaise eng 2018 Modeling Earth Systems and Environment E50 - Sociologie rurale P40 - Météorologie et climatologie U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques changement climatique population rurale moyens d'existence résilience simulation modélisation environnementale http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6705 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374498089962 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374480530924 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5209 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000056 Burkina Faso Sahel http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8081 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6734 Policy makers need to predict the socio-economic vulnerability of their populations to climate change. The method proposed in this paper links the outputs of five regional climate models (CCLM, HadRM3P, RACMO, RCA and REMO) to a compartmental model. The method was applied to a representative village in the Sahelian region of Burkina Faso. The integrated model shows the evolution of three socio-economic groups (“Less vulnerable”, “Vulnerable” and “More vulnerable”) up to 2050 and accounts for farmers strategies, policy interventions and climate. A mathematical analysis of the model confirmed its robustness. The simulations showed no transition from “Vulnerable” to the “More vulnerable” group. The five regional climate model outputs implemented under scenario A1B of the IPCC show that the populations of the village will be “Less vulnerable” to climatic variability, with a percentage likelihood of between 65 and 85%. The “More vulnerable” group can migrate to the “Less vulnerable” group and vice-versa as these two groups transit by the group of the “Vulnerable”. The only covariate risk we considered is climate, particularly rainfall variability. The vulnerability method developed here can be applied in any situation in which it is possible to evaluate the coefficients of transition from one vulnerability group to another. article info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal Article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion http://agritrop.cirad.fr/588203/13/b.barbier.pdf text Cirad license info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess https://agritrop.cirad.fr/mention_legale.html https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0489-y 10.1007/s40808-018-0489-y info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s40808-018-0489-y info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/purl/https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-018-0489-y |
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E50 - Sociologie rurale P40 - Météorologie et climatologie U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques changement climatique population rurale moyens d'existence résilience simulation modélisation environnementale http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6705 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374498089962 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374480530924 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5209 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000056 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8081 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6734 E50 - Sociologie rurale P40 - Météorologie et climatologie U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques changement climatique population rurale moyens d'existence résilience simulation modélisation environnementale http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6705 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374498089962 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374480530924 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5209 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000056 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8081 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6734 |
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E50 - Sociologie rurale P40 - Météorologie et climatologie U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques changement climatique population rurale moyens d'existence résilience simulation modélisation environnementale http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6705 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374498089962 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374480530924 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5209 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000056 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8081 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6734 E50 - Sociologie rurale P40 - Météorologie et climatologie U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques changement climatique population rurale moyens d'existence résilience simulation modélisation environnementale http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6705 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374498089962 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374480530924 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5209 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000056 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8081 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6734 Zorom, Malicki Barbier, Bruno Gouba, Elisée Somé, Blaise Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the socio-economic vulnerability of rural Sahelian households in a context of climatic variability |
description |
Policy makers need to predict the socio-economic vulnerability of their populations to climate change. The method proposed in this paper links the outputs of five regional climate models (CCLM, HadRM3P, RACMO, RCA and REMO) to a compartmental model. The method was applied to a representative village in the Sahelian region of Burkina Faso. The integrated model shows the evolution of three socio-economic groups (“Less vulnerable”, “Vulnerable” and “More vulnerable”) up to 2050 and accounts for farmers strategies, policy interventions and climate. A mathematical analysis of the model confirmed its robustness. The simulations showed no transition from “Vulnerable” to the “More vulnerable” group. The five regional climate model outputs implemented under scenario A1B of the IPCC show that the populations of the village will be “Less vulnerable” to climatic variability, with a percentage likelihood of between 65 and 85%. The “More vulnerable” group can migrate to the “Less vulnerable” group and vice-versa as these two groups transit by the group of the “Vulnerable”. The only covariate risk we considered is climate, particularly rainfall variability. The vulnerability method developed here can be applied in any situation in which it is possible to evaluate the coefficients of transition from one vulnerability group to another. |
format |
article |
topic_facet |
E50 - Sociologie rurale P40 - Météorologie et climatologie U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques changement climatique population rurale moyens d'existence résilience simulation modélisation environnementale http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1666 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6705 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374498089962 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_1374480530924 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_5209 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_9000056 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_8081 http://aims.fao.org/aos/agrovoc/c_6734 |
author |
Zorom, Malicki Barbier, Bruno Gouba, Elisée Somé, Blaise |
author_facet |
Zorom, Malicki Barbier, Bruno Gouba, Elisée Somé, Blaise |
author_sort |
Zorom, Malicki |
title |
Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the socio-economic vulnerability of rural Sahelian households in a context of climatic variability |
title_short |
Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the socio-economic vulnerability of rural Sahelian households in a context of climatic variability |
title_full |
Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the socio-economic vulnerability of rural Sahelian households in a context of climatic variability |
title_fullStr |
Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the socio-economic vulnerability of rural Sahelian households in a context of climatic variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the socio-economic vulnerability of rural Sahelian households in a context of climatic variability |
title_sort |
mathematical modelling of the dynamics of the socio-economic vulnerability of rural sahelian households in a context of climatic variability |
url |
http://agritrop.cirad.fr/588203/ http://agritrop.cirad.fr/588203/13/b.barbier.pdf |
work_keys_str_mv |
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